Collins ($7,000) suiting up for this Sunday’s divisional round matchup vs. the Patriots seems very unlikely. The receiver suffered a concussion in this past Monday’s Wild Card win over the Steelers that resulted in him being carted to the locker-room. This is Collins’ second concussion of the season and he unsurprisingly missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practices.
With Collins likely out, Kirk ($4,100) and Higgins ($4,600) should operate as the Texans’ top two wideouts vs. New England this Sunday. Higgins has been usually the player to see the biggest uptick in work when Collins has been out, but that wasn’t the case this past Monday vs. Pittsburgh.
With Collins only available for the 67.7% of the snaps due to the concussion, Kirk stepped up and had his best game of the season, catching eight of his nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown (31.4 FPTS), while Higgins had a much quieter showing, catching three of his four targets for 39 yards (6.9 FPTS).
Kirk saw far better usage than Higgins, with Kirk seeing nine targets on 23 routes, whereas Higgins saw four targets on just 15 routes. Kirk saw two targets over 20 yards and one redzone target, while Higgins saw no targets in either of those categories.
With this being a playoff game, the Texans clearly had more trust in the veteran in Kirk over a rookie in Higgins and there is no reason to expect this to change vs. the Patriots after Kirk’s brilliant showing last week.
Kirk should run more routes and see more targets once again, and this is also a better matchup for him. Kirk is primary a slot receiver, whereas Higgins mostly runs routes out wide, so Higgins is far more likely to see coverage from New England’s top CB Christian Gonzalez, as 88% of his snaps have been out wide this season. Just like Collins, Gonzalez suffered a concussion last week, but the corner is trending in the right direction to play Sunday after Gonzalez was able to practice Wednesday and Thursday.
Higgins is still a viable play for this weekend’s four-game NFL DFS slate at only $4,600 on DraftKings, but at $500 less at $4,100, Kirk is simply the better option of the two Texans’ receivers if Collins is out as expected.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans are a three-point underdog vs. the Patriots.
