The Heat are hosting the Celtics on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 235.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Celtics vs. Heat preview, prediction
The Celtics have lost two games in a row, but they get Jaylen Brown back tonight after he sat out Monday’s loss to the Pacers. Boston has been impressive this season with Jayson Tatum (Achilles) on the shelf, and Brown has been the primary reason for his team’s success.
The Celtics are third in the Eastern Conference at 24-15 and they impressively rank third in the NBA in net rating, with Brown leading the way with a career-high 29.5 PPG. At+3500, the former NBA Finals MVP carries the fourth-best odds to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook. In addition to Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard both are having career-seasons in Tatum’s absence, and the development of Neemias Queta at center has been huge for Boston’s defense.
The Celtics still rely heavily on their outside shooting, ranking second in three pointers made (15.7) and three pointers attempted per game (42.6), which sometimes can be their downfall when they have an off shooting night like we saw Monday vs. Indiana. Boston shot just 25.7% from beyond the arc. This was a rare sight, though, as the Celtics rank eighth in three-point percentage (36.8%).
The Heat have been strong at defending outside shooters this season, ranking fourth in opponent three-point percentage (34.4%), but Boston having back-to-back bad games from outside is unlikely, especially with Miami likely missing their top perimeter defender in Davion Mitchell (shoulder).
This season, the guard leads the Heat in plus/minus and the team’s net rating drops 8.9 points per 100 possessions to an ugly -3.5 with Mitchell off the court. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (knee) is also questionable, and not him having tonight would be a huge loss for Miami, as Jaquez Jr. is one of the frontrunners for Sixth Man of the Year and he ranks second only to Mitchell in plus/minus for the Heat. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jacquez Jr. carries the third-best odds to win the award at +700.
Even with both Mitchell and Jaquez Jr. active, Miami has lost three of it’s last four games and all three of those losses were by double-digits. This ugly stretch has been directly correlated with the return of Tyler Herro, who came back from an 11-game absence due to a toe injury to begin this four-game span. The Heat are 21-19 this season, but they are just 4-6 with Herro active. The Kentucky product is averaging 21.9 PPG on 48.8% shooting, but Herro is a ball dominant player who is handling a 25.1% usage rate, and his presence is clearly hurting the Heat’s flow on offense. Miami’s offense has been a huge 7.0 points per 100 possessions worse with Herro on the floor, and as a result, he ranks second-to-last in plus-minus for the team.
The Heat will be at home tonight, where they are 14-6 this season, so they do have that working in their favor, but their struggles with Herro back in the mix and the injuries to Mitchell and Jacquez Jr. may be too much to overcome with the Celtics in town. The Celtics are 12-8 on the road this season, and when these two clubs went head-to-head in Boston last month, the Celtics cruised to an easy 129-116 win.
Celtics vs. Heat pick, best bet
While the Heat are at home, its hard to have much faith in them tonight. The Celtics should snap their two-game losing streak with a win, and they are a terrific bet to cover this small 2.5-point spread.
This season, Boston is 12-8 ATS on the road and 21-18 ATS overall.
