Wednesday brings a loaded college basketball slate and a Big 12 meeting out in Lubbock provides a fun showdown for fans at 9 p.m. EST. The No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders are unbeaten at home thus far and are trying to build momentum while still nursing the sting of a close loss to Houston last week. The Utah Utes are coming off a four-game losing streak looking to snap that stretch with a standout upset.
These programs have only met twice in history, once in 2015-16 and once more last season in Utah. The Utes took that first matchup but the Red Raiders handled business easily last year with a 93-65 win.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Utah vs. Texas Tech on Wednesday, January 14.
Utah vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
The Utes aren’t a basketball school by any means and an 8-8 overall record this season reinforces that notion. At 0-3 in Big 12 play as well, they sit at the bottom of the conference standings at the moment alongside Cincinnati. However, they do have a Quad 2 victory over Ole Miss and have played some close games to Quad 1 opponents like BYU and California.
Utah sits 124th in KenPom rankings. This team leans on its offense with 80.6 PPG (78th) but isn’t particularly efficient with an eFG% of 53.1% (105th). The Utes shoot 35.1% from three and 53.4% from two, sitting 138th in assists per game and 124th in AST/TO ratio as well. The team also sitz 174th in rebounds per game and lacks standout presences on the glass. Defensively, they allow 80.7 PPG (303rd) while opponents average an eFG% of 52.3% (228th). Utah is above average against three-pointers with just 7.0 allowed per game (84th), but otherwise underperforms on that side of the ball.
The Utes’ production is headlined by guard Terrance Brown’s team-high 21.6 points and 4.1 assists per game, though he’s not a significant threat to hit from deep at just 28.6%. Backcourt mate Don McHenry is also a lead option with 18.6 PPG while shooting 41.2% from deep. Only one other player averages double-digit scoring as forward Keanu Dawes posts 12.3 PPG and a team-best 8.8 rebounds. Seydou Traore and Jacob Patrick also play key roles in the rotation.
The Red Raiders have seen much more success in recent years, making it deep into last year’s tournament before falling short at the hands of Houston. The team’s composition has seen some fairly significant changes, but they still sit 12-4 overall and 2-1 to start conference play. They’re 3-4 against Quad 1 teams with wins over LSU, Duke and Colorado.
Texas Tech sits 23rd in the latest KenPom rankings. The Red Raiders play uptempo basketball at 25th in FGA per game while averaging 83.1 PPG (53rd). They have an eFG% of 55.1% (55th), shooting 54.0% on twos but an impressive 37.6% from three. They make 10.9 threes per game, good for 10th-most in the nation. Texas Tech also ranks 64th in assists and 35th in AST/TO ratio. In rebounding, the program ranks 57th in total boards per game and 35th in OREB as well. Defensively, the Red Raiders allow 73.2 PPG (140th) and an opposing eFG% of 49.4% (111th).
This roster is led by Jacob Toppin, a standout of last year’s tournament who averages 20.6 PPG and 11.0 rebounds as a premier slasher. Christian Anderson is second on the team with 19.3 PPG and a team-best 7.2 assists, also shooting 42.0% on threes while pitching in 1.8 steals. LeJuan Watts also scores 13.3 PG with 6.3 boards while Donovan Atwell posts 11.8 PPG with a 41.7% 3P%. Jaylen Petty also sees a significant share of minutes with 9.3 PPG.
Utah vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as 17.5-point favorites tonight at home with -2100 odds to win on the Moneyline. Utah’s odds of an outright upset sit at +1100 with the game total set at 159.5 points.
Based on the total and the stats for each offense, it seems clear that projections favor this as a matchup that eschews defense in favor of a shootout. The Utes are very poor on that end to begin with and can’t seem to guard a parked car… so playing against one of the nation’s best offense should prove quite problematic here. With only one player averaging over 1.0 block per game, there’s not much in the way of rim deterrence and that could prove a significant issue even if Utah manages to slow down their opponents’ shooters from deep.
For the Red Raiders, they get up a ton of shots typically and are also a superior rebounding team as well. Those extra boards will provide extra possessions to pad the score, and they don’t cough the ball up all that much either. Texas Tech should make the most of its opportunities here.
The Red Raiders should win this game comfortably but are just 4-4 ATS at home and were favored for each of those games. The Utes are 4-2 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS overall. Those records combined with the long 17.5-point spread do make me a little bit uncomfortable tonight, so given Utah’s offensive capabilities, I do believe they’ll keep this within 17 points to cover.
