UCLA Bruins vs. Penn State Nittany Lions College Basketball prediction, preview
On the surface, it might seem gross to back Penn State against UCLA in a basketball game, but this is just a dreadful spot for the Bruins. Part of joining the Big Ten based out of Los Angeles was going to mean gross travel spots, and this is absolutely one of them.
UCLA took a long road trip earlier in the month, losing at both Iowa and Wisconsin. Then the Bruins went back home to face Maryland for one game, which they did win, but did not cover. Now they have to fly all the way out even further east to play a road game at Penn State. Not the friendliest of schedules.
UCLA has not been good when it needs to leave Pauley Pavilion, at just 1-5 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread. The lone victory also came on the west coast, in a narrow two-point win at Washington. The Bruins’ scoring has also dropped significantly in road games, going from 83.8 points per game at home, to just 70.7 on the road. Penn State is certainly a class below the rest of the opponents in defensive ranking, but the travel and road environment should still play a role.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are playing pretty solid basketball at the moment. They’ve had their share of duds this season, but their last three games have been as underdogs of 14.5 vs. Illinois, +24 vs. Michigan and +22.5 at Purdue. Penn State not only covered all three games, but lost each of them by single digits, and nearly pulled a stunning upset over Michigan — PSU has a shot in the air to win the game, but ultimately lost by two points. If you want to go back a game further in Big Ten play, Penn State also covered as a 12.5-point dog to Michigan State, losing by four points.
The Nittany Lions are 3-0 ATS in the home underdog role this season, covering by an average of 12.3 points per game. Given what this team has been able to accomplish against very respectable Big Ten competition, it should be able to hang with UCLA here — particularly given PSU is at home and the busy travel schedule for UCLA.
I’ll back the home underdog with the points here in College Park.
