Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers College Basketball prediction, preview
We’ve got a head-scratching line on this game, with metrics respecting LSU and the market respecting Kentucky. If you go to KenPom, you’ll see the Tigers projected as a one-point favorite in this game, but the market once sat LSU +3.5, and has moved out to +4.5. It’s a larger discrepancy than we’re used to seeing, with the market showing a lot of respect for a Wildcats team that’s 1-4 away from home, and 0-2 in true road games.
Kentucky has already lost outright three times as the favorite this season, and Wednesday night in Baton Rouge will mark the first time its been priced as a road favorite. The Wildcats road losses both came in more difficult environments, but they still did not go great — losing by 12 or more points at both Louisville and Alabama.
Kentucky spiraled off the ‘Bama loss, going on to lose the next game at home as a 12.5-point favorite to Missouri. While the Wildcats righted the ship on Saturday against a shaky Mississippi State team, I’m not convinced they are fixed. Starting point guard, Jaland Lowe had been in and out of the lineup, but was lost for the season during Saturday’s win. As the true point guard on the roster, that should set the Wildcats back the rest of the way.
The loss of Lowe should level the playing field on offense between these two teams, and LSU ranks slightly ahead on defense, according to KenPom. If we make all things equal, LSU should probably be a slight favorite here. Of course, the talent of Kentucky is what makes this number what it is, but this has the makings to be a difficult road game. The Wildcats are scoring nearly 10 less points per game on the road this season (76.5) than they are at home (86).
LSU comes in 8-1 at home this season, not including a nice win over a solid SMU team on a semi-home court in New Orleans. The Tigers enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak, but they should be hungry for this one in a rivalry game with a chance to knock off a perceived powerhouse. LSU has been a scrappy underdog during the losing streak, covering against both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
Kentucky hasn’t been great in this matchup in recent seasons, either, going 1-4 ATS in the last five matchups against LSU. I believe the Wildcats should be in for some struggles here, so give me the points with the home dog.
