It’s been a nightmare season for the Mavericks, who are now without Anthony Davis. Still, there’s hope in Dallas thanks to Cooper Flagg. The rookie phenom will hope to earn a win tonight against the championship-caliber Nuggets. Denver is looking to pick up yet another victory without face of the franchise Nikola Jokic.
Who has the edge in this Western Conference showdown? Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Wednesday’s Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks matchup.
The Mavericks are 1.5-point favorites (-108) over the Nuggets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dallas is favored at -122 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 224.5 points.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Jokic is still sidelined with a knee injury. In addition, backup center Jonas Valanciunas is also absent due to a calf strain. Without both big men, Zeke Nnaji has been pressed into duty down low. Against most opponent, that would leave the Nuggets at a significant disadvantage. That’s not the case tonight against Dallas. With Davis injured, it’ll be backup Daniel Gafford getting the start. The veteran, a capable defender, isn’t much of an offensive threat.
The biggest challenge for the Mavs will be slowing down Jamal Murray. It’s been a terrific campaign for the veteran, looking to earn his first career All-Star Game selection. Since Jokic’s injury, Murray has taken his game to another level. Over the Canadian’s last eight outings, he’s averaging 27.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game while shooting 43% from the field (42% 3PT). He’s joined by Aaron Gordon, who recently returned from a lengthy absence. Over 18 games this season, he’s posted 18.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists.
As bad as things have been for the Mavericks, at least they have Flagg. The Duke alum has taken his game to new heights in recent weeks, looking the part of a future superstar. During his previous ten appearances, the 19-year-old has notched 20.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. That includes a monstrous 33-point, nine-rebound, nine-assist masterpiece vs. Denver on December 23rd. In addition to Jokic, Cameron Johnson (knee) is also injured for the Nuggets. That’s left undrafted rookie Spencer Jones as the team’s starting small forward. A savvy player such as Flagg could take advantage
Limiting shots on the perimeter is crucial for Dallas’ defense. The Mavs have held opponents to just 11.7 three-pointers made per game, second-lowest in basketball. However, shooting from long distance isn’t a crucial part of Denver’s game plan. The Nuggets are attempting 35.1 three-pointers per game, ninth-fewest in the NBA. What separates the visitors is their league-leading 58.2% effective field goal percentage. However, over Denver’s last three games, the team has the ninth-worst eFG% (51.6%).
Nuggets vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
Dallas has scored no more than 114 points in each of its previous six contests. Keep in mind, four of those games came with Davis in the starting lineup. On the flip side, Denver has surpassed the 115-point mark only once over its last eight appearances, all without Jokic. At the moment, there aren’t many go-to scorers on either side. However, given the injuries mounting for both teams, backing one over the other feels risky. Right now, the safest bet on the board is backing the under.
