If there’s any doubt as to what the best national team in Africa is, the final four matches of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco should leave no doubt. In a tournament typically rife with upsets, the semifinals are full of continental giants, with four of the five highest-ranked teams in Africa (No. 11 Morocco, No. 19 Senegal, No. 35 Egypt, and No. 38 Nigeria) all alive in the chase for silverware.
Both semifinals will take place this afternoon, with Senegal taking on Egypt at 12 p.m. ET (6 p.m. local) in Tangier and Morocco facing Nigeria at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) in Rabat. The winners will meet in Rabat on Sunday, while the losers play Saturday in Casablanca.
The Lions of Teranga are +125 favorites to oust the Pharaohs (-180 to advance to the final) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Egypt is +280 (+140 to advance). There are +200 odds that the teams will require extra time.
Senegal vs. Egypt prediction, pick
Nobody should be surprised by either of these teams’ run through the tournament. Senegal has one of the most well-rounded squads in all of Africa, and the Pharaohs have arguably the continent’s best player. The Lions of Teranga have certainly made the journey through the tournament look easier so far, posting a far better goal difference than Egypt in the group stage and winning each of their two group-stage matches more comfortably, but they’ve also faced a comparatively easy path, not facing any of Africa’s nine World Cup qualifiers. But the Pharaohs demonstrated their resolve by staving off an Ivorian rally to book their tickets to the semifinals, 3-2. Anything can happen in 90 minutes on a football pitch.
The West African side is the more balanced one. Senegal might not have a name quite as large as Mohamed Salah, but his former Liverpool teammate Sadio Mané has turned back the clock, smashing home a goal and registering three assists as he prepares for what could be the final World Cup of his storied career. Mané has received plenty of support from the Lions of Teranga’s younger talents: 24-year-old Bayern Münich man Nicolas Jackson has a pair of goals, 25-year-old Iliman Ndiaye secured the winner against a tough Mali side, and 17-year-old Ibrahim Mbaye became the youngest goal-scorer at AFCON in the 21st Century when he netted as a substitute against Sudan. Senegal thrives in the attack and loves to dominate possession, and thanks to clinical shooting — a tournament-best 52.4% on-target rate — it has put 8.6 shots per 90 minutes on target, overwhelming defenses and netting 11 goals. Their versatile 4-1-4-1 and 4-2-3-1 formations have also allowed the Lions of Teranga to be steady in the back, conceding the fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes. It helps that, whenever they do let opponents through, they have arguably Africa’s best goalkeeper in Champions League-winning Edouard Mendy, who’s saved 83.3% of his opportunities.
Mendy will need to be at his very best to deal with Egypt’s fearsome front two of Salah and Omar Marmoush. Salah ranks second in goals behind only Morocco’s Brahim Díaz, and Marmoush has registered two of his own. Both of the Pharaohs’ tremendous strikers netted in their win over Ivory Coast, with Marmoush opening the scoring in the fourth minute on a one-on-one opportunity and then Salah tapping in an incredible Emam Ashour assist to double the country’s lead in the 52nd minute. Egypt arguably got lucky in that game in that the Elephants only got four of their 13 shots on target — all in all, the Pharaohs have allowed nearly as many shot attempts as they have registered — but thanks to Salah and Marmoush, it ranks fourth in on-target percentage. The Pharaohs don’t have as much top-level talent as Senegal — most of their players play domestically in Egypt, while most of the Lions of Teranga play in one of Europe’s top five leagues — so they’ve had to adapt by sitting back and attacking on the counter with their lethal attackers against stronger teams. The fact that they’ve given up the 11th-most shots on target per 90 minutes is a major concern, especially against a front three as strong as Senegal’s, but if Mendy is the best goalkeeper on the continent, Mohamed El-Shanawy is up there as well. He’s saved 14 of his 18 opportunities so far this tournament.
In a match between two of the most clinical teams in the competition and two of the best goalkeepers, it just depends on which team gets more opportunities, and so far this tournament, that’s been the Lions of Teranga. In particular, I’m concerned about the fact that the Pharaohs have given up the most crosses in the tournament despite not facing an attack nearly as strong as Senegal’s. Egypt could get through once via Salah and Marmoush, but at some point, the Lions of Teranga are bound to capitalize on all the chances that the Pharaohs’ defensive system will allow them. It feels chalky to pick the favorites in a tournament known for its volatility, but this entire tournament has seemed like an epic collision course between Sengal and Morocco.
