The Villanova Wildcats (13-3) and Providence Friars (8-8) are set to face off on Tuesday night, going head-to-head in Rhode Island. The Big East showdown will tip off at 6:30 p.m. EST on FS1.
The Wildcats are 2.5-point favorites on the road with -148 Moneyline odds and the total has been set at 160.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Villanova at Providence Preview, Prediction
Villanova Preview
The Wildcats lost by five to No. 8 BYU in their season opener before cruising against an otherwise light start to their nonconference slate. A road game against No. 2 Michigan marked the end of Villanova’s seven-game winning streak, but it bounced back with an 18-point win over Pittsburgh and an overtime victory against Wisconsin. Once Big East action got underway, the Wildcats bested Seton Hall, DePaul, Butler and Marquette. Their lone conference loss was a four-point defeat at home to Creighton.
Although James Madison transfer Bryce Lindsay has only put up nine and four points in his last two games, the guard still leads Villanova with 15.6 points per game. He is shooting a Big East-best 41.6% from deep on 7.1 three-point attempts a night. Freshman guard Acaden Lewis is putting up 13.0 points and 5.2 assists per game in the backcourt alongside Lindsay. Tyler Perkins rounds out the guard trio with 11.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. 6-foot-10 Grand Canyon transfer Duke Brennan is averaging 12.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. The Wildcats’ other starting forward, Matt Hodge, is also averaging double figures, while transfer portal regular Devin Askew is shooting 38.7% from beyond the arc off the bench.
Villanova is among the top-100 teams in the country in three-point shooting and offensive rebounding midway through former Seton Hall and Maryland coach Kevin Willard’s first year at the helm. The Wildcats also rank No. 41 in limiting turnovers, No. 59 in limiting fouls and No. 54 in opponent points per game.
In the latest KenPom rankings, Villanova ranks No. 25 in adjusted net efficiency. It boasts the No. 24 offense and No. 38 defense with the eighth-slowest tempo in the country.
Providence Preview
The Friars opened their season with wins against Holy Cross, UPenn and New Hampshire, although they lost to Virginia Tech and Colorado between those results. Providence followed up that stretch with a neutral-site win over Penn State, only to go 0-2 against Wisconsin and No. 10 Florida in San Diego over Thanksgiving. While wins against Fairleigh Dickinson, Rhode Island and Brown brought the Friars three games over .500, Big East play started with a double-overtime loss at Butler. Providence beat St. John’s on the road, but it also lost to Seton Hall, No. 4 UConn in overtime and Xavier.
Vanderbilt transfer Jason Edwards leads not only the Friars, but the entire Big East, with 17.2 points per game. His 3.3 assists per game are also a team-high. UCF transfer Jaylin Sellers joins Edwards in the starting backcourt with 15.4 points per game on .455/.421/.898 shooting splits. Although Estonian wing Stefan Vaaks is no longer part of the starting lineup, he is still giving Providence 13.8 points and 3.1 assists per game. Freshman forward Jamier Jones, on the other hand, has recently cracked the starting five and has scored double-figures in each of his last six games. Nigerian sophomore Oswin Erhunmwunse is the Friars’ anchor down low with his 7.5 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.
Under coach Kim English, Providence ranks No. 88, 93 and 18 in two-point, three-point and free-throw percentage, respectively. On a per-game basis, the Friars rank No. 16 in points, No. 48 in blocks and No. 59 in rebounds nationally.
Providence currently slots in at No. 67 in the KenPom ratings, boasting the No. 36 adjusted offense and No. 147 adjusted defense with the No. 16 tempo in the country.
Villanova at Providence Pick, Best Bet
Tuesday’s battle between the Wildcats and Friars is a meeting between two polar opposite teams. The former is a balanced, patient team while the latter is an offensive-minded, run-and-gun squad. As a result, 13 of Villanova’s 16 games have gone under 160.5 total points, including each of its last 10. Both of its games against top-10 offenses – BYU and Michigan – finished with 150 or fewer total points. Providence, on the other hand, has cleared Tuesday’s point total in 12 of its 16 games. Even when it lost to a top-five defense in UConn last week, Providence still made it a 103-98 shootout.
If you’re going to make an over/under pick Tuesday, the over is probably the safer bet since the Friars are more likely to control the tempo at home. At the same time, both teams’ extreme tendencies make it hard to feel incredibly confident about either side of that market.
Looking at the 2.5-point spread, Villanova has won by at least three in all 13 of its wins. Meanwhile, Providence has lost by at least three in all eight of its losses. So from a value standpoint, you should really be deciding between Villanova against the spread and Providence moneyline. The Friars are playing at home, where they most recently took a top-three UConn team to overtime. They are also only 10 days removed from a road win over a St. John’s team that ranks above Villanova in the KenPom. Providence is certainly capable of pulling this one out and knocking Villanova down a peg in the Big East standings.
