One of the most fascinating matchups in the NBA takes place tonight as the San Antonio Spurs head to Oklahoma City for a game against the Thunder. These sides have squared off three times this season already with the Spurs taking all three games in hand, two of which came by double-digit margins of victory. Will Victor Wembanyama and his teammates get the better of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the reigning champs again, or will OKC’s fortunes change this time around?
Here’s a Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday night’s game, which will air on NBC and Peacock.
Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, preview
San Antonio Spurs
At 27-12, the Spurs sit second in the Western Conference and show makings of a legitimate playoff threat when everyone is healthy. While still 5.5 games back of the Thunder for the lead amidst an ugly 2-3 stretch over the last five contests, San Antonio remains a force to be reckoned with and does seem to have OKC’s number.
The Spurs average 118.0 PPG (ninth) with a 54.3% eFG% (15th). The team shoots 56.0% on twos (seventh) and excels on the fast break with the ninth-most points from those opportunities along with the 14th-most points in the paint and seventh-most free throw attempts. Dominance in the paint is key with the sixth-most rebounds per game and the NBA’s best defensive REB%, and it’s not shocking to see San Antonio ranked at the top given its frontcourt talent. Perimeter scoring is less of a standout strength with a 34.6% three-point percentage (21st), as well as middle-of-the-pack rankings in assists and AST/TO ratio. Defensively, the Spurs are quite strong with 112.9 PPG allowed (seventh) along with the eighth-lowest eFG%.
San Antonio also sits fifth in NETRTG at +5.5 and 13th in pace.
At the individual level, Victor Wembanyama paces the roster with 24.3 PPG, 11.1 rebounds and 2.8 blocks as an incredibly versatile talent and walking mismatch. De’Aaron Fox pitches in 20.7 PPG and 5.8 assists, while fellow guard Stephon Castle averages 17.2 PPG and a team-high 6.8 assists. The Spurs have five other players averaging double-figure scoring, largely headlined by veterans Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes.
On the injury report, Vassell (adductor) is the only player listed out tonight. Otherwise, the full rotation should be available.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Now, we look towards the reigning champions. The Thunder still lead the league at 33-7 and are the only team to surpass the 30-win mark so far this season. Following a stretch during which they looked vulnerable for the first time all year, this roster has now won three straight games and sits 7-3 across the last 10 outings as well.
It’s easy to see why Oklahoma City is such a dominant force. The Thunder average 121.4 PPG (second) while holding opponents to a league-low 108.4 PPG on the other end. The defensive strengths are wildly impressive, allowing the fewest fastbreak points and points in the paint of any team, also forcing a league-high 18.2 opponent turnovers as well. OKC sits seventh in points in the paint on offense with a 56.2% eFG% (fifth), shooting 58.2% on twos (second) and a pedestrian 35.5% from three (16th). The scoring near the basket is nearly impossible to limit, making it a true elite strength while also ranking third in AST/TO ratio as well. While not an impressive rebounding team at 18th in boards per game, the Thunder make up for it in most other categories.
The Thunder are first in NETRTG at +12.8 and 15th in pace.
Of course, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears likely to take home the award for the second straight year with 31.9 PPG and 6.4 assists. Chet Holmgren’s 18.1 PPG are second on the team while producing 1.8 blocks and 8.4 rebounds, the latter two stats of which are high marks of all available players. Jalen Williams’ 17.6 PPG are third on the roster despite his struggles with efficiency from deep, and he adds 5.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game as well. Three other players average at least 10.0 PPG with Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins the two available of that group.
On the injury report, center Isaiah Hartenstein (soleus) remains out while Lugentz Dort (foot) is questionable.
Spurs vs. Thunder pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Thunder at -8.5 at home tonight with -340 odds on the Moneyline. The Spurs are +270 ML underdogs with the game total set at 230.5 points. Betting splits show 55% of straight wagers on Oklahoma City to win with 68% picking the over.
As mentioned in the intro of this article, the Spurs are a perfect 3-0 against the Thunder this season with wins of 111-109, 130-110 and 117-102. San Antonio would’ve covered tonight’s spread in two of the three, and after holding one of the NBA’s premier offenses to 110 points or fewer across all three matchups, it’s clear this unit does something to bother Oklahoma City’s typical game. Perhaps it’s the presence of Wembanyama and the fact the defense gives up few points in the paint, but maybe it’s something else entirely. Whatever the case, the Thunder haven’t yet found an answer against tonight’s opponent and have looked somewhat hapless in the last couple of those three past meetings. With Hartenstein still sidelined, it’s even tougher to see them matching up well in the frontcourt.
The Spurs are a cool 21-16-2 ATS this season and are 7-3 when operating as a road dog. Yeah, they face elite competition tonight, but it’s tough to see them getting blown out entirely and they should cover, if not win this outright.
Top pick: SA Spurs +8.5 (-102)
