The NBA’s late slate brings a game that could hold serious implications out on the West Coast. On one side, the visiting Portland Trail Blazers are ninth in the Western Conference with a young, but slowly ascending squad. On the opposite bench, a group of Golden State Warriors veterans are eighth with just a two-game lead over tonight’s opponent.
Here’s a Trail Blazers vs. Warriors prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday night’s game.
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors prediction, preview
Portland Trail Blazers
At 19-21, the Trail Blazers aren’t exactly a real threat to contend into the postseason. However, their odds of making it there in the first place appear far better after a strong last couple of weeks that include a 7-3 stretch as well as a pair of standout wins over the Rockets.
Portland has a fairly pedestrian offense, averaging 116.3 PPG (15th) while struggling with efficiency. The Blazers have an eFG% of 52.6% (27th) while hitting 53.9% of two-point attempts (21st) and just 34.0% of threes (26th). They’re also 27th in assists and last in AST/TO ratio as well. Defensively, they allow 118.9 PPG (25th) and a 54.0% eFG (13th) while ranking 15th in blocks and 19th in steals. The two true elite numbers for Portland are that the team ranks fourth in rebounding and third in free throw attempts per game.
Overall, the Trail Blazers are 22nd in NETRTG at -2.5 and ninth in pace.
The biggest issue tonight is that leading scorer and budding superstar Deni Avdija won’t play, leaving a void of all-around production in the range of 26.1 PPG, 7.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists. Without him, Shaedon Sharpe likely takes on a larger role after averaging 21.5 PPG as an athletic slasher, while Jrue Holiday also recently returned to the lineup and will provide a significant boost with 16.0 PPG and 7.9 assists. Donovan Clingan also averages a double-double of 11.1 points and 10.7 rebounds, while Toumani Camara posts 13.1 PPG as a two-way talent.
On the injury report, Avdija (back) is out along with Scoot Henderson (hamstring), Kris Murray (lumbar) and Matisse Thybulle (knee). Jerami Grant (Achilles) is doubtful.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are just a smidge ahead of Portland in the standings at 21-19. They’ve done some winning lately at 6-4 across their last 10 outings and are 13-6 at home in particular.
While once an offensive power, the opposite has been true over the last couple of seasons. Golden State averages 115.4 PPG (19th) with a 54.5% eFG% (12th) and decent shooting overall — a 55.2% two-point percentage and 35.9% three-point percentage each rank 12th as well. The Warriors pace the league in three-point attempts and makes, which shouldn’t be shocking by any means with Steph Curry in the lineup. The Dubs also sit eighth in assists per game, though they’re 15th in AST/TO ratio. Defensively, Golden State comes in with 113.6 PPG allowed (ninth) while opponents have a 54.0% eFG% (12th). The unit is particularly strong against three-point shooting, but lags behind in the interior at 23rd in rebounding. Still, the Warriors average the eighth-most opponent turnover per game to create extra possessions.
Golden State falls 12th in NETRTG at +1.8 and 18th in pace.
Curry has battled health this season but averages 28.8 PPG, his best mark since 2022-23, and he also leads the NBA in three-point makes and attempts. Jimmy Butler’s 19.9 PPG are second on the team while dishing out 4.9 assists, but beyond him, the rotation lacks any other scorers above 12 PPG. Jonathan Kuminga, the subject of much trade speculation, posts 11.8 PPG and a team-best 6.2 rebounds. After him, Brandin Podziemski averages 11.7 PPG while shooting 39.7% from three and Moses Moody pitches in 10.2 PPG. Of course, Draymond Green also remains a defensive presence and connective playmaker with 5.9 rebounds and a team-high 5.5 dimes.
The injury report is largely clean tonight, with just Seth Curry (sciatic nerve) ruled out.
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Warriors as 10.5-point favorites at home tonight with -470 odds on the Moneyline. The Trail Blazers are +360 ML underdogs with the game total set at 225.5 points. Betting splits show 76% of straight wagers on Golden State to win with 68% picking the over on the total.
Things may look rough for the Blazers tonight without Avdija active, especially given his recent hot streak. The multipurpose forward averages 30.3 PPG with 7.0 assists and 6.5 rebounds across his six games this month and near-singlehandedly propelled his team to some of these recent wins with a pair of 30-plus point outings and a 41-ball against Houston. Replacing him as the hub of the offense is tough, though the recent return of Holiday does help significantly in adding another reliable playmaker to a young unit in need of a stabilizing presence.
The Warriors have the clear best player in the game tonight with Curry and Butler may very well be the second-best himself. The two concerns are whether they’ll get support from elsewhere in the rotation and if anyone can compete with Clingan on the boards. The biggest hope for Portland is that their big man will dominate the glass against a team that struggles in that area, creating extra chances for points off offensive rebounds (the Blazers rank third-best in OREB% as well). That’s something the Trail Blazers can exploit, and assuming they push the pace against an older roster, the transition game could prove key here as well. Portland just has to not beat itself with sloppy turnovers against blitzes and the active hands of the Warriors.
The Trail Blazers are actually 17-9 ATS as an underdog this season and have showed plenty of fight. Even without Avdija, there’s a chance they can still keep this game without 10 points against an offense that’s not exactly.
Top pick: POR Trail Blazers +10.5 (-105)
