Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas Jayhawks College Basketball prediction, preview
Kansas priced as a home underdog is a rare sight, and it’s even more rare that I fade these spots when they pop up. That said, I’m not very high on the Jayhawks at this point in the season. KU is 0-3 ATS in Big 12 play, losing both of its road games as a favorite on consecutive Saturday afternoons at UCF and West Virginia.
The home game the Jayhawks played, sandwiched between those losses, required multiple miracles to comeback and beat TCU in overtime. The Frogs were in complete command of that game, leaving by nine points with a little over a minute to go, and by five points with just 12 seconds remaining in regulation.
Credit to Kansas for earning that win, but let’s be real, TCU also puked all over itself to let that one slip away. Outside of a win over Tennessee in Las Vegas, the Jayhawks have not played all that well when its played a step up in competition. It lost on the road at North Carolina, on a neutral to Duke, and even slipped up at home to UConn.
This Iowa State team is even better than UConn at the moment, coming in a perfect 16-0. The Cyclones are 6-0 away from home, including 2-0 in true road games — a 23-point win as a 4.5-point underdog at Purdue, and a 10-point win laying 4.5 points at Baylor. Iowa State is balanced on both sides of the ball, and ranks among the elite in the country on KenPom — 12th-ranked offense and 2nd-ranked defense.
The Jayhawks will defend at home, and rank 14th on defense themselves, but the offense has been stagnant. KenPom ranks Kansas just 50th on offense, and Darryn Peterson has carried the Jayhawks at times. The issue is, Bill Self is almost forced to play Peterson too many minutes. He’s been battling hamstring injuries, which has forced Peterson to either play limited minutes, or play too much and not be able to finish games.
Peterson going in and out of the lineup has left the Jayhawks struggling at times without him. The Cyclones hounding defense should be able to take advantage. While it’s never comfortable, I believe Iowa State is a significant step up in class for the Jayhawks, so I’ll fade Kansas in the rare home dog role.
