At 7 p.m. EST on Tuesday evening, the Indiana Hoosiers head to East Lansing for a Big Ten matchup with the No. 12 Michigan State Spartans. The visitors look to bounce back after threatening another nationally-ranked opponent in their last game but ultimately falling short; meanwhile, the home side seeks to extend its winning streak to three straight.
These programs have faced off 132 times in history, with the Hoosiers holding a 74-58 advantage. They’re also 3-2 over the last five meetings dating back to 2021-22 but just 23-41 when on the road in Michigan.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Indiana vs. Michigan State on Tuesday, January 13.
Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
Indiana enters this matchup 3-2 in Big Ten play with a strong 12-4 record on the campaign overall. The Hoosiers threatened No. 10 Nebraska in their last game and actually held a lead going into halftime, though it didn’t last in an 83-77 loss. Still, it was an encouraging sign for this team which falls 27th in the KenPom rankings with some standout wins over Kansas State and Washington.
Indiana averages 84.5 PPG (42nd) with a 57.3% eFG% (22nd). While the Hoosiers are 202nd in shot attempts per game, nearly half their attempts come from three-point range as they rank 16th in 3PM despite knocking those shots down at just a 36.3% clip. They are quite efficient from two, shooting 60.2% on those attempts (16th). This team also moves the ball well, averages 18.3 assists per game (20th) with the 13th-best AST/TO ratio as well. Defensively, Indiana holds opponents to 68.0 PPG (42nd) while contesting shots well. The Hoosiers don’t produce many blocks or steals though, and their 36.8 rebounds per game fall 105th.
Lamar Wilkerson paces the team with 20.3 PPG, knocking down 42.1% of his threes in the process as a clear lead option. Behind him, three other players average double-digit points — Tucker DeVries (14.9), Tayton Conerway (12.3) and Reed Bailey (10.4). DeVries leads the team with 5.1 rebounds as well. Elsewhere in the rotation, Conor Enright plays the third-most minutes while posting a team-best 4.6 assists, and Nick Dorn averages 7.4 PPG while knocking down 43.6% of his three-point attempts.
As for Michigan State, this team sits 12th in the latest rankings with a 14-2 record and 4-1 mark in Big Ten play. The Spartans have won back-to-back games following a two-point loss to No. 8 Nebraska back on January 2, and their lone other loss came at the hands of No. 6 Duke back on December 6. There’s a lot to like about this group, which will look to continue climbing especially with the sting of last year’s Elite Eight loss still lingering.
The Spartans aren’t the nation’s most exciting team on offense, averaging 78.9 PPG (106th). They’re not particularly efficient either with an eFG% of 52.9% (112th) while shooting 52.4% from two (148th) and 35.9% from three (74th). However, Michigan State dishes out 19.1 assists per game (eighth) with a solid AST/TO ratio. This team’s identity lies on the other side of the ball, holding opponents to 64.5 PPG (12th) while pulling down 42.7 rebounds per contest (fifth). The Spartans’ opponents have the 16th-worst eFG% and Michigan State also ranks 32nd in blocks per game with 4.8. Overall, this program sits 13th in KenPom rankings.
At the individual level, it’s a true team effort on most nights. The Spartans are led by Jaxon Kohler’s 14.3 PPG and 10.1 rebounds a night, both team-bests, and the forward knocks down 53.3% of his threes. Three other players each average double-digit scoring as well. Jeremy Fears Jr. posts 12.1 PPG with a team-high 8.8 assists as a table-setting guard. Coen Carr also makes a two-way impact with 11.3 PPG and 5.2 rebounds, as does Carson Cooper with 10.3 PPG and 7.3 boards.
Indiana vs. Michigan State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite tonight at home with -310 odds to win on the Moneyline. Indiana’s odds of an outright upset sit at +250 with the game total set at 144.5 points.
This’ll be a very interesting battle between two philosophically differing programs. The Hoosiers are one of the NCAA’s most efficient teams and prioritize perimeter play in particular as a driving force in the attack. Meanwhile, the Spartans love to get dirty, play tough defense and dominate the glass. The stylistic clashes are clear, but one similarity between the two sides is that both are generally first-half teams. Indiana posts an average of 44.1 points in the first half, eighth-most of any team. Meanwhile, Michigan State produces 39.7, good for 55th. In the second half, these units rank 128th and 172nd, respectively.
Whether it’s a matter of simply getting gassed in the second half or something else, we should see these programs come out strong to begin tonight’s game. While concerns about the Spartans’ defensive impact are real on the glass, they likely won’t slow Indiana down all that much from beyond the arc with 8.1 3PM allowed per game, 213th in the country along with 26.6 attempts from distance, 313th. Both teams should get their numbers in the first half before the action grinds to a slower pace in the second. With that in mind, over 67.5 points as the first half total is a top pick for tonight.
