The NFL playoffs have lived up to the hype thus far, with a weekend filled with exciting football. But the action is not over yet, as a Monday night battle between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers will officially put a bow on Wild Card Weekend.
Both of these teams lean primarily on their defense as an identity for success. The Texans clinched a postseason appearance through the Wild Card after a 12-5 regular season, while the Steelers defeated the Ravens in Week 18 to narrowly win the AFC North.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Texans enter as three-point favorites and hold -155 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers hold +130 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 38.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Monday night playoff battle.
Texans at Steelers Best Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (+100)
The Pittsburgh Steelers brought in Aaron Rodgers this offseason with the hopes that he can be a postseason difference-maker. The four-time MVP will not be confused for the prime version of himself, but he has provided a higher baseline of play than the Steelers have gotten over the past few years. Rodgers also has seen his usage scaled up as the season progressed, and expect this to continue tonight.
On the season, Rodgers is averaging 31.1 pass attempts per game. However, he averaged just 28.2 pass attempts per game through the first 11 weeks and closed the season by attempting 34, 27, 41, 39 and 47 pass attempts over the final five weeks of the season. Even while being a bit limited in the early stages of the season, the 42-year-old has attempted over 33.5 passing attempts in seven of his past 11 games.
The Texans enter this matchup with a case for the strongest defense in the league. Houston ranks second in points allowed and the fewest yards conceded in the league. It is also tied for the seventh-most sacks in the league and does an excellent job containing the run.
Expect this level of pressure to lead to the Steelers leaning on a short passing attack throughout. They have had some struggles getting consistent rushing production and have made adjustments by utilizing the short passing game at a more frequent rate as the season progressed. Pittsburgh is also a three-point underdog for the matchup and very well could be forced to play from behind throughout. Who knows how many chances Rodgers still has at adding to his Hall-of-Fame resume, so expect him to be motivated to leave it all on the field tonight. Count on Mike Tomlin to put the ball in Rodgers’ hands at a high rate and for the 10-time Pro Bowler to tally over 33.5 pass attempts tonight, as has become commonplace in recent weeks.
Nico Collins Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Despite some overall offensive inconsistencies in Houston, Nico Collins has lived up to his two-time Pro Bowl reputation this season. The 26-year-old pulled in 71 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns on the year. Collins averaged 74.5 receiving yards per game and tallied over 71.5 yards through the air in eight of the 15 games he played in.
While the Steelers hold a strong defensive reputation and invest in this unit at a high level, the production has been underwhelming this season. Pittsburgh ranks 17th in points allowed and 26th in yards conceded overall. It has been especially vulnerable through the air, ranking 29th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in passing touchdowns conceded while giving up the fifth-most yards per game, specifically to opposing wide receivers. Most recently, the Steelers allowed 138 receiving yards to Zay Flowers in the win-or-go-home Week 18 matchup with the Ravens.
Collins will headline the Texans’ passing attack and has stepped up in the postseason in the past. Across his four postseason games, he has been targeted at least seven times in each, and he recorded at least 68 yards in each and over 71.5 yards in three of these four games. Pittsburgh is going to have some trouble moving the ball, so don’t be shocked if Houston gets some additional offensive opportunities. Expect Collins to be involved in this attack throughout and tally over 71.5 receiving yards by taking advantage of this vulnerable Steelers defense.
Kenneth Gainwell to Record 6+ Receptions (+120)
One of the breakout stars of this Steelers offense this season has been Kenneth Gainwell. The former Super Bowl champion has become the go-to option on short yardage and has become particularly impactful in the passing game. On the season overall, Gainwell has rushed the ball 114 times for 537 yards, along with 73 receptions for 486 yards and eight total touchdowns. Gainwell leads the team in receptions, ranks second in receiving yards and is tied for the most total touchdowns on the team.
Gainwell’s ability in the short passing game will be especially necessary against this Texans pass rush. Pittsburgh has done an admirable job protecting Rodgers this season, but this will be a tough test. While he is averaging 50.1% of offensive snaps on the year, Gainwell is coming off back-to-back weeks with 66+% of offensive snaps. He has also gone over his average in each of the past four weeks and tallied as many as 77.4% of offensive snaps in a game.
The 26-year-old averages 4.3 receptions per game overall. But he is coming off a season-high eight receptions in the previous game and has tallied at least six receptions in seven games this season. Gainwell has been targeted 51 times across the final eight weeks and is averaging 5.5 receptions across this stretch. With Gainwell already a key part of the offensive attack and the game script in his favor, don’t be shocked if he is the leading receiver for the Steelers tonight. Count on Rodgers leaning on him in the screen game throughout and record at least six receptions for the seventh time in the past nine weeks.
