The Texans are moving up to primetime. For the first time in its franchise history, Houston wasn’t scheduled in the Saturday afternoon slot of Wild Card weekend. Instead, it’ll play under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
The total for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook is just 38.5 points — the lowest of any contest this round of the playoffs. That means points will likely be at a premium. Still, someone has to find the end zone, right? Let’s break down the first touchdown scorer market and make a couple picks for tonight’s action on the gridiron.
Texans at Steelers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Dalton Schultz First Touchdown Scorer (+900)
Houston sat in the lower-half of the league in touchdowns per game (1.4), which meant Dalton Schultz did not find the end zone as often as in seasons past. However, in all other aspects, it was a career-year for the veteran tight end. Schultz set new career-highs in targets (106) and receptions (82), finishing the regular season with 777 receiving yards — the sixth-most of any TE. Nico Collins (+550) is clearly the No. 1 option in the Texans’ passing attack, yet Schultz doesn’t find himself too far behind. Then there’s the matter of matchup. The Steelers’ secondary was burned for a whopping 12.3 yards per opponent pass attempt in Week 18’s narrow win over the Ravens, and that seems like a unit that can be exploited, especially by tight ends. Pittsburgh conceded 6.2 catches, 65.9 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game to opposing TEs during the regular season, all of which ranked within the top five of the NFL. Look for Schultz to take advantage early.
Kenneth Gainwell First Touchdown Scorer (+900)
I was tempted to back Connor Heyward (+2200) here, as the Steelers’ designated tush push specialist. That’s probably a little too cute, though the tight end’s anytime touchdown odds at +600 are certainly worth a look. No, I’ll just play it safe with Kenneth Gainwell, who has basically been Pittsburgh’s entire offense this season. Here’s the thing with Gainwell: You’re basically getting a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey. Gainwell doesn’t quite have the snap monopoly that CMC possesses in San Francisco, but the running back does lead the Steelers in both red zone rushing touchdowns (5) and red zone target share (20.5%). That’s not a combo that exists in many places. It also doesn’t hurt Gainwell’s case that he found the end zone in three of Pittsburgh’s final five games during the regular season.
