It may feel like the NBA season is still young. But it’s not: tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors will play their 41st games of the season, becoming the third and fourth teams to officially complete the first half of their regular-season schedule.
Coincidentally, tonight’s six-game featured NBA slate will also include one of the the three teams to have only played 36 games, the Brooklyn Nets.
I like putting themes into my Monday NBA prop bets pieces, so for this edition, I might as well dive into the teams at the extreme opposites of the NBA’s scheduling quirks. As always, these bets — and hundreds more — are available at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Donovan Mitchell Most Points (+118)
Seven seasons ago, a 22-year-old, shifty, fearless guard captivated Utah Jazz fans as he established himself firmly as one of the NBA’s rising stars by averaging 23.8 points per game. Today, another 22-year-old, shifty, fearless guard is making a name for himself in Utah, though Keyonte George is now in his third season at the same age Mitchell was in his second and is only averaging 23.6 points per game. For his part, Mitchell has given George advice even though he’s now on the Cavaliers, and George is certainly capable of out-scoring his mentor, as is Lauri Markkanen (who was included in the deal that sent Mitchell to Cleveland). However, George and Markkanen will occasionally defer to the other and score 22 or fewer points, while Mitchell has scored 30 or more in four of his past five games.
The main difference is that the Cavaliers’ defense is that much better than the Jazz’s. Utah has been fairly competitive this season, beating the San Antonio Spurs and taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to overtime, but it hasn’t been because of the defense, which ranks dead last in defensive rating and just allowed 150 points to the Charlotte Hornets, getting out-rebounded 65-31. Cleveland, meanwhile, has had a fairly disappointing season, but with a mostly healthy squad, it should spend plenty of time with Mitchell on the floor alongside Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and De’Andre Hunter. In 49 minutes, that five-man unit has posted a defensive rating better than the Thunder’s league-leading mark.
Collin Murray-Boyles 8+ Rebounds (+123)
Toronto’s ninth overall pick only became a regular starter at the beginning of the calendar year, but in five games, he’s made the most of his opportunities, snagging 15 boards against the Charlotte Hornets last Wednesday and doing so again against the Philadelphia 76ers last night. Expecting another 15-board performance tonight, even against the same opponent, would be unrealistic (his highest alternate rebound line offered on DraftKings Sportsbook is 12+, at +870 odds), but 8+ seems reasonable, given that he’s hit that mark in five of the nine games in which he’s played at least 24 minutes. He should continue to get at least that many minutes with RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, and Brandon Ingram all dealing with injuries.
The 76ers, meanwhile, give up the 10th-most boards per game, and while they’re a little bit better on a per-play basis, with a near-average 49.8% rebounding percentage, their volume should still be high, even with Joel Embiid likely to be back in the middle after missing last night’s game with knee injury management and groin soreness. Philadelphia has attempted among the most shots in the restricted area while shooting the lowest percentage and has allowed opponents to attempt the second-most tries at the rim while holding them to the seventh-lowest percentage. Short-range misses tend to lead to reliable rebound opportunities, especially for a player like Murray-Boyles, whose average board has come the second-closest to the basket of any Raptors rotation player.
Michael Porter Jr. 5+ Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Porter was held out of the Nets’ loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night for rest, and while it’s worth keeping an eye on his status in case Brooklyn agrees to a deal to move on from him, he should have star-level impact if he plays. Since the start of December, Porter has been an All-Star-caliber player, averaging 27.8 points per game and making 4.5 three-pointers per game on 43.3% accuracy. Across that span, he’s made five or more triples in eight of his 13 games. Despite taking the fourth-most difficult three-point shot diet in the league, he’s hit his shots at a rate 6.6 percentage points higher than expected, which ranks 10th among high-volume shooters.
On paper, it looks like the Dallas Mavericks are a difficult opponent, given that they have the 10th-best defensive rating and have allowed the league’s lowest three-point percentage this season. However, the Mavericks have gotten worse defensively as the season has gone on: through December 11, they’d allowed the third-fewest wide-open three-point tries per game and got fortunate that opponents hit such shots at the third-lowest rate. Over the last month, though, Dallas has conceded the seventh-most uncontested tries and has still gotten lucky that opponents have made them at such a low clip. It’s hard to imagine the Mavericks getting better defensively in the long run now that Anthony Davis, who ranks sixth league-wide in contested threes per game and ranks 11th in defensive RAPM, will miss at least a month with a hand injury.
