No matter their personnel, the Pittsburgh Steelers can never be counted out of playoff contention. They punched their ticket to the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, out-lasting the Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North, and they’ve now made the postseason 13 times in Mike Tomlin’s 19-season tenure. However, the myriad experience hasn’t necessarily resulted in wins; they’ve lost their playoff opener in each of the last five seasons.
If Pittsburgh wants to break its streak of futility tonight in its 8 p.m. ET Wild Card Round matchup against the Houston Texans, it’ll need a strong performance from all of its offensive playmakers, starting with Jaylen Warren, who spearheads the offense as a dual-threat running back.
The Steelers are three-point underdogs for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 38.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Warren.
Best Jaylen Warren Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaylen Warren 14+ Rush Attempts (+126)
While Pittsburgh has operated a much more pass-heavy approach than it did in seasons past, ranking 28th in total rushing attempts after ranking in the top 10 in that stat in each of the prior three campaigns, Warren still had 14 or more carries in half of his games. Though he lost some playing time to Kenneth Gainwell towards the end of the season, he was still entrusted to pound the rock when it mattered, garnering 14 carries on just 28 snaps in the Steelers’ division-clinching win, including all four of the team’s fourth-quarter rushing attempts. There’s a reason Pittsburgh still prefers him to Gainwell: he finished eighth in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, well ahead of Gainwell, and his elusivity score was nearly double that of his backfield partner.
I don’t expect the 27-year-old to be as efficient as usual against arguably the league’s best all-around defense, but handing it off to Warren might be a better strategy than letting Aaron Rodgers throw. Houston’s secondary has been elite this season, conceding the third-lowest completion percentage, recording the third-most interceptions, and limiting opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating. Two-time All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been particularly stingy in coverage across the second half of the season, allowing just a 48.8% completion percentage as the nearest defender after the Texans’ Week 6 bye. The seven teams who ran the ball the most frequently against Houston tended to have less mobile quarterbacks than those who were willing to test the Texans through the air.
Jaylen Warren Anytime TD Scorer (+220)
If Warren reaches 14 carries, his likelihood of finding the end zone is fairly high. Though he only scored eight touchdowns this season, the fifth-fewest among the 21 players with 250-plus touches, all but one of those scores came in the final 10 weeks of the season, and he found the end zone in five of those games (+100 implied odds). He also scored in three of the eight games in which he received 14 carries (+166 implied odds). Plus, while Houston has been good against opposing running backs, it still allowed 14 total scores to the position, which was roughly a league-average mark overall. Warren ranked 12th in the league in red zone rushing share, and the Texans actually allowed just the 16th-lowest conversion rate on opponents’ red zone opportunities.
