The NFL Playoffs’ Wild Card Round wraps up on Monday night with an AFC clash between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. After a couple days of fantastic and dramatic games, this showdown will hopefully play out in similar fashion.
Pittsburgh is a three-point home underdog with the game total set at a low 38.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are the best DK Metcalf prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday night’s Texans vs. Steelers matchup in the Wild Card.
Best DK Metcalf prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
What a strange season it’s been for DK Metcalf. After being traded away from the Seattle Seahawks where he spent the first few seasons of his career to the Steelers, the star wideout received a massive four-year, $132 million extension with his new team. Whether he lived up to the expectations of such a large deal is the topic of debate, though. Across 15 games, Metcalf caught 59 of his 99 targets for 850 yards and scored seven total touchdowns. His regular season was also shortened by a two-game suspension that kept him out of Week 17 and 18 after an altercation with a fan during a game, but even then, his numbers took an undeniable dip with just 56.7 yards per game. He did remain a significant threat after the catch with 7.1 YAC/REC, good for fourth among all wideouts. However, his aDOT of 11.3 yards ranked 44th at the position and his PFF receiving grade of 74.8 placed him 32nd among 81 qualifying receivers.
Regardless of the peaks and valleys of his regular season, Metcalf now gets a fresh start as he returns from suspension against the Texans. This matchup feels notably difficult against a defense allowing just 185.6 passing yards per game (sixth-best), 6.5 yards per pass (sixth) and a completion rate of just 59.29% (third). Houston’s cornerback tandem of All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are quite formidable, and Jalen Pitre also hits hard as a slot corner and hybrid safety. It’s a difficult proposition for anyone in this Steelers passing attack.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Metcalf’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 4.5 receptions, 54.5 receiving yards, and a longest reception of 23.5 yards. His +230 odds to score an anytime touchdown are fifth-shortest of any player in this game.
There’s no denying that this is a difficult matchup for Metcalf, especially given the defensive backs who should line up across from him on the majority of snaps. His track record this season doesn’t exactly spark much encouragement for going over his yardage prop either, even with the line set as low as it is — he stayed under tonight’s mark of 54.5 receiving yards in nine of his 15 appearances during the regular season. Rather than work as a true deep threat than in the past with the Seahawks, he’s become more of a short-yardage option who’s relied upon to create his own yardage in Arthur Smith’s offense.
One may assume Pittsburgh and quarterback Aaron Rodgers will rely more on top playmakers like Metcalf given the stakes of tonight’s game. While that may be true, the numbers don’t exactly support a high-volume game for the star, either. He stayed under 4.5 receptions in 10 of his 15 games this season, a hit rate of 66.67%, and the support for the under doesn’t stop there. The Texans allowed the 11th-fewest targets to wide receivers during the regular season (17.18) and gave up the fourth-fewest receptions to the position (9.35). There aren’t really other standout options aside from Metcalf, but Rodgers tends to distribute the ball fairly evenly and has shown deference to his tight ends as well throughout the year. Given the combination of Metcalf’s regular-season sample and the tendencies of Houston’s secondary, I favor him to stay under 4.5 catches here at -159 odds.
The value here doesn’t look great as a solo pick, but it can certainly be combined with other plays in parlays as a builder. After Metcalf averaged just 3.9 catches per game in the regular season, this should provide a stable selection to add onto tonight’s betting cards.
Best Bet: DK Metcalf under 4.5 receptions (-159)
Click the odds of this bet to tail!
