The final matchup of NFL Wild Card Weekend will wrap up tonight as Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans.
It took a shocking missed field goal as time expired for the Steelers to secure a postseason opportunity in the Week 18 win-or-go-home matchup with the Ravens. But a playoff opportunity is all they could ask for, and all season-long goals remain on the table. Pittsburgh will now look to challenge an impressive Houston Texans defense and hope Aaron Rodgers can be the postseason difference-maker he was brought in to be.
Looking at the odds, the Texans enter as three-point favorites and hold -155 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers are +130 underdogs with the game total set at 38.5 points.
There are numerous ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Aaron Rodgers prop bets ahead of the NFL postseason matchup.
Best Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-104)
While Aaron Rodgers will not be confused for the prime version of himself, he has increased the bar of expectation for this Steelers offense compared to the level of quarterback production it has seen in recent years. The four-time MVP has also seen his usage scaled up as the season progressed. After initially establishing an identity as a run-first offense, Pittsburgh has unleashed Rodgers more in the later stages of the season.
On the season overall, Rodgers is averaging 31.1 pass attempts per game. However, he averaged just 28.2 pass attempts through the first 11 games this season. Rodgers then closed the year by posting pass attempt totals of 34, 27, 41, 39 and 47 pass attempts over the final five games. Despite being a bit limited by the conservative play-calling to start the season, Rodgers has tallied over 33.5 pass attempts in seven of his past 11 games played.
The Texans’ defense will provide a difficult challenge in this matchup. They finished the regular season ranked first in yards allowed, second in points given up, and they have tallied the seventh-most sacks in the league. This pressure rate will be a problem for Rodgers tonight, so expect him to counter this by chipping away through the short passing game. This has largely become a part of the Steelers’ game plan in recent weeks, regardless of the opponent, and the matchup will only reinforce this. In addition, Pittsburgh is a three-point underdog for the matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, and playing from behind would increase the need to throw the football. How effective he will be in these opportunities is to be determined, but count on Mike Tomlin putting the ball in Rodgers’ hands at a frequent rate and for the 42-year-old to attempt over 33.5 pass attempts again tonight.
Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Interceptions (+103)
Throughout the course of his career, and including this season, Aaron Rodgers has done an excellent job taking care of the football. His 1.4% career interception rate is the best in NFL history, and he has led the league in this category in six individual seasons. Rodgers is posting a 1.4% interception rate for this season as well, with just seven interceptions across his 498 pass attempts. He did not throw an interception in any of his final seven games played this year.
However, this Texans defense is going to push Rodgers and the entire Steelers offense to a level they have not been tested this year. Houston has tallied 19 interceptions as a team and forced turnovers in 15 of its 17 regular-season games. Four players on the roster have tallied four interceptions individually. This includes forcing at lease one interception in each of the final five weeks of the season, and the Texans also have five defensive touchdowns on the season.
All interceptions are not created equal, and nothing the Texans throw at Rodgers will be something he hasn’t seen before. But expect the high pressure from Houston’s defensive front to force the veteran into making decisions at a quicker rate than he would prefer. Rodgers shows an admirable level of trust in his pass catchers, but these battles with the Houston secondary are not ones that should be viewed as advantageous. With the expectation that he will be airing the ball out a lot, count on the Texans being able to steal a possession away. They have been one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league, ranking fourth in turnover percentage, so count on the Texans carrying this right into the postseason.
