Now is the time for the Patriots to prove their mettle. New England is back in a position of power in the AFC, dominating a soft regular season schedule to finish 14-3 and with the two-seed in the conference. All that translates into a Wild Card matchup on Sunday Night Football with the Chargers.
No AFC squad scored more points per game this season than the Patriots (28.8). Does that mean they’re destined to find the end zone first in this matchup? Or can Justin Herbert get Los Angeles off to a solid start?
Let’s break down the first touchdown scorer market on DraftKings Sportsbook for this all important postseason affair.
Chargers at Patriots First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson First Touchdown Scorer (+750)
I’ll be honest, I just don’t understand how Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson (+750) can have the same odds in this market. Let’s go beyond the fact that Stevenson is the starter, which is obviously important when we’re discussing first touchdown scorer. But Stevenson is also the Patriots’ preferred option at the goal line, having seen 10 carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line in comparison to Henderson’s six — and that’s in three fewer games. That’s another aspect that you can not forget. Stevenson was injured for a three-game stretch in November, a stretch where Henderson registered half of his 10 total touchdowns in his rookie campaign. In fact, in the 14 games where both backs were active, Henderson only scored in three of them (he found the end zone twice in Week 15 and Week 18). Henderson might be the more skilled player, but Stevenson is the RB to bet on.
Keenan Allen First Touchdown Scorer (+1900)
The Chargers have scored a majority of their touchdowns through the air this season. In fact, at 72.2%, Los Angeles has found the end zone with a pass at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. So, on the one hand, we have a pretty good idea of how the team will score its opening TD. On the other, the Chargers have been relatively socialist about who catches said touchdowns. Ladd McConkey (+1400), Quentin Johnston (+1400), Oronde Gadsden (+1600) and Keenan Allen all have registered either 14 or 15 red zone targets — leaving this roster without a clear-cut candidate for No. 1 high-leverage target. Still, it does make me wonder why Allen’s odds are so much lower than his teammates. Especially considering it’s the veteran wideout that leads Los Angeles in overall targets (122) and receptions (81). There’s some value with this bet.
