The NFL playoffs continue tonight with a must-watch matchup. The second seed Patriots (14-3) have enjoyed a miraculous season, led by MVP front-runner Drake Maye. New England will hope to continue its terrific campaign with a win over the visiting Chargers. Los Angeles (11-6), led by quarterback Justin Herbert, is looking for its first postseason victory since 2018.
Which side is getting more action from bettors on Sunday night? Before the start of this AFC showdown, let’s break down which picks and player props the public is backing tonight.
The Patriots enter this contest as 3.5-point favorites (-108) over the Chargers on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 45.5 points. New England is favored at -192 on the moneyline.
Betting Splits
New England is commanding more action from the betting public, especially on the moneyline. 79% of all bets and 73% of the handle are backing the AFC East champs. It’s not much of a shock; the Patriots reeled off three straight wins to close out the season. In comparison, the Chargers enter this matchup with some uncertainty. Herbert was held out last Sunday in part due to his hand injury. In addition, running back Omarion Hampton (ankle) is listed as questionable.
The spread still shifts towards the Pats, but not by a wide margin. Just 64% of bets and 56% of the handle are going towards the home team. Some bettors might be a bit skeptical of New England’s 14-win season. The Patriots went up against the NFL’s easiest strength of schedule. They won just two games against playoff teams, the Bills and Panthers. However, it’s not as if the Chargers are the most battle-tested squad, either.
It’s a different story when looking over the total. 54% of all bets are in favor of the over, while 60% of the handle supports the under. As home favorites against the spread, New England has gone over on five of seven occasions. Los Angeles has a 5-2-1 ATS record towards the under as the away team.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (+135)
- Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer (+165)
- Ladd McConkey anytime touchdown scorer (+235)
- Justin Herbert 1+ passing touchdowns (-516)
New England’s top offensive weapons are generating plenty of attention in terms of prop bets. Out of the backfield, it’s TreVeyon Henderson leading the way atop the list. The Ohio State alum came on strong to end the season, emerging as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. Through 17 games, he recorded 911 rushing yards, 221 receiving yards and ten total touchdowns. Fellow running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains a key piece of this Patriots offense, as well. The fifth-year pro found the end zone seven times during 14 games this season. That includes a three-score performance last Sunday vs. the Dolphins.
In the passing game, Stefon Diggs enters this weekend as New England’s top target. However, don’t forget about Hunter Henry. The tight end has excelled as Maye’s safety blanket, doing damage over the middle of the field. Over 17 games, the 31-year-old has notched 60 receptions for 768 yards and seven touchdowns. Los Angeles has surrendered only six TDs to opposing tight ends this season.
For the visitors, finding room to operate on the ground could be a challenge. New England is allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (101.7) in the NFL. In addition, Hampton’s injury means he may not be at 100%. Therefore, expect plenty of passes from the Chargers in this one. That means LA’s wide receivers, including Ladd McConkey, should stay busy. The Georgia alum led all Bolts players with 789 receiving yards. However, he only scored six touchdowns; that’s a major reason for his +235 odds. To round out the list, bettors are going for a safer play with Justin Herbert. -516 odds are fairly high, but there’s a good chance the Pro Bowler tosses a TD or two. He’s delivered a touchdown pass in 15 of his 16 appearances so far.
