Yet another NFL Sunday is upon us, meaning it’s time for the latest edition of our weekly must-starts column. Except now, we’re in crunch time.
We’ve wrapped up the regular season and the NFL Playoffs are in full swing! Slates get smaller and pickings get slim in the player pool, but the mission for our DFS strategy remains the same as ever — we just want to help you win. After crunching the numbers, we’ve got another three must-start players for your fantasy football contests. Whether a standout talent to build lineups around or an intriguing value with matchup and salary, these are guys who can smash and win the week. Let’s jump right in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Sun)
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. Bills ($6,100)
Three games means just six quarterbacks to choose between in the player pool. Every single one of these guys has some serious appeal, but if you’re not shelling out for Josh Allen or Drake Maye at the very top, Trevor Lawrence is your guy. The Jags’ franchise guy looks… well, like a franchise guy! A rough couple of years are now fully worth the wait as the former No. 1 pick finished the regular season with 4,007 passing yards (sixth), 29 passing touchdowns (fifth) and the third-highest aDOT with the fourth-most big-time throws per PFF. He threw three or more touchdowns in three of his last four games with 11 passes for a score over that span, and he tossed two or more touchdowns in all but one of his last seven games with an 18/4 TD/INT across the latter sample. However, his legs give him even higher upside with nine touchdowns via the ground and 21.1 rushing yards per game.
Lawrence averaged 21.0 FPPG this season and finished below that mark just once across his last seven appearances as he truly turned the corner while flashing insane upside with a 47.3-point game as well. Sure, the Bills’ defense isn’t an easy matchup, but they’re vulnerable to the run with the fifth-most rushing yards allowed and a league-high 24 touchdowns conceded on the ground. With the highest total of this slate on DraftKings Sportsbook at 51.5 combined points, Lawrence should have quite the day.
RB Travis Etienne, Jaguars vs. Bills ($6,600)
I wrote about this in the prop bet piece for this game, but I love this spot for Travis Etienne and the Jaguars’ rushing attack. I’m entirely comfortable pairing Lawrence with his top running back here because of just how bad the Bills were against the run for much of the regular season. They allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game and 24 rushing touchdowns, the latter of which tied with the Cowboys for the most of any team. That’s not good company to share, nor is the 31st-ranked EPA/rush that ranked worse than the Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals while only beating out the last-place New York Giants. Does this look like a smash spot to you?
Yeah, he faded slightly down the stretch with just 11.2 and 4.8 DKFP in his last two games. However, there’s no reason to fear an Etienne selection on Sunday given the matchup and talent with 15.3 FPPG. He still ran for 1,107 yards and seven touchdowns this season, adding an additional 292 yards and six touchdowns on 36 catches. Given the RB1 responsibilities, plenty of red-zone work (51 carries, 10 targets) and his receiving ability (over three targets per game), there’s plenty of potential for a huge game.
TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. 49ers ($4,200)
Instead of a wideout, we’re going with a tight end as our third pick and he’s honestly even deserving of FLEX consideration. Dallas Goedert’s 11 receiving touchdowns tied him for the second-most of any pass catcher… including wide receivers. He commanded a 20.0% target share but that mark ticked upwards to 30.0% when in the red zone, making him one of the best threats to score on any given Sunday. Beyond that though, Goedert saw at least six targets in three of his last four games down the stretch of the regular season and finished with 12.5 FPPG on 60 receptions, 591 yards and his 11 scores.
He’s not a sexy name in contests, but there’s plenty of upside with Goedert and that’s what we want to chase in a contest like this. Especially with some other uninspiring options at his position, I’d rather bank on that upside in a game that could turn into a shootout against a strong 49ers offense. To top if off, San Francisco gave up the third-most targets (8.59) and fourth-most touchdowns per game (0.59) to the position during the regular season.
