Another busy day of college basketball is set to dominate the TV screens on Saturday, with plenty of intriguing matchups on the schedule. Tipping off at 2 p.m. ET, the No. 5-ranked Purdue Boilermakers will host the Penn State Nittany Lions at Mackey Arena.
These programs have faced off 61 times in history, with Purdue holding a 47-14 advantage. However, Penn State produced an 81-70 upset over then eighth-ranked Purdue, the Nittany Lions’ first win against a top ten opponent since 2019.
Purdue enters as a heavy 21.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 151.5 points.
Penn State at Purdue prediction, preview
Penn State enters with a 9-6 record but remains winless in Big Ten play (0-4). The Nittany Lions will have some momentum on their side after giving No. 2 Michigan a run for its money on Tuesday night. While they lost 74-72, it was an impressive showing against a Wolverines team that leads the country with a +28.2 average margin of victory. Penn State is 6-9 against the spread and has fallen below the game total in eight of 15 games.
Mike Rhoades’ squad is generating 77.7 points per game this season, which ranks 128th in the country. They rank 87th in offensive rating, 84th in field-goal percentage, and 218th in three-point percentage, while turning the ball over at the sixth-lowest rate. Defensively, opponents are scoring 74.2 points per game against them, which ranks 162nd in the country. Penn State ranks 146th in defensive rating, 296th in opponent field goal percentage, 275th in opponent three-point percentage, and 299th in rebounds per game.
Kayden Mingo headlines the production for the Nittany Lions, averaging 14.9 points, 4.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and a Big Ten-leading 2.5 steals per game. Freddie Dilione V adds 14.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Melih Tunca is the lone other player averaging double-figures with 10.2 points per contest. Eli Rice leads the team with a blistering 44% three-point percentage. Josh Reed leads the team with 4.7 rebounds, also contributing 8.7 points a night. Ivan Juric, Dominick Stewart, and Tibor Mirtic round out Penn State’s notable depth.
The Purdue Boilermakers are off to a 14-1 start to the season and look the part of legitimate national championship contenders. Their lone loss came against Iowa State. They have three ranked wins already this season, beating Alabama, Texas Tech, and Auburn. Purdue has gone 9-6 against the spread and fallen under the point total in nine of 15 games.
Matt Painter’s squad is averaging 86 points per game, which is the 33rd-best rate in the country. Purdue boasts the top offensive rating and ranks 11th in field-goal percentage, seventh in three-point percentage, and third in assists per game. Defensively, the Boilermakers allow 66.9 points per game, the 30th-best mark in the country. They own a top 15 defensive rating while ranking 33rd in opponent field-goal percentage and 25th in opponent three-point efficiency.
Purdue has an experienced roster, with 70% of last season’s squad and 80% of its scoring production returning. Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are tied for the team lead with 13.8 points per game. The latter adds a team-high 10.1 rebounds per game, which ranks second in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Braden Smith leads the country with 9.5 assists per game, along with 13.3 points and 1.9 steals a night. Oscar Cluff also adds 11.2 points and 8.7 rebounds. Daniel Jacobsen, C.J. Cox, and Jack Benter each play notable roles in the rotation, as well.
Penn State at Purdue pick, best bet
While the performance against Michigan was no fluke, it’s difficult to expect Penn State to replicate its performance against Purdue. The Nittany Lions have lost five of their last six games entering this matchup — a brutal stretch that includes a 113-72 loss to Indiana and an 80-46 beatdown from Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been rolling since its loss to Iowa State, which also has its eyes set on a national championship. The Boilermakers have won six straight games, with five of those wins coming by 16 or more points.
Experience is a rare thing in college basketball these days, and it’s been an advantage for Purdue on a nightly basis. Each key player is completely aware of their role and knows how to play off one another. While 21.5 points is a lofty spread, the Boilermakers have had few issues steamrolling opponents thus far. Their average victory margin sits at 19.1 points, the 12th-best mark in college basketball.
Expect Purdue to have the upper hand on the boards and on defense. Penn State’s only true path to victory comes from beyond the three-point line, but the Nittany Lions are shooting just 32.8% from deep. It’s unlikely for them to find their shots on the road at Mackey Arena, one of the country’s toughest places to play.
Look for Purdue to take full control of the matchup and add another impressive victory to its resume Saturday afternoon.
