The NFL Playoffs begin this weekend, and one of the best games on the slate is the divisional rematch between the Bears and Packers. Green Bay is currently a 1.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 44.5 points.
Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets for this all-important Wild Card matchup.
Betting Splits
The Packers and Bears are facing off in the lone divisional battle of the Wild Card Round. That means that these teams have already faced off twice this season, with each squad winning their home game. However, the Bears’ win came in overtime in a game that Jordan Love left with an injury. The Packers have the better roster, which is why they enter as road favorites in Chicago.
Green Bay has been dealing with injuries over the past few weeks and will most notably be without superstar EDGE Micah Parsons, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Still, Love is expected to be fully healthy for this game. The Packers also rested most of their starters in Week 18 to recharge, while the Bears played a full game against a physical Lions team.
The public is backing the home underdog in this spot. 68% of the bets and 68% of the handle are on the Bears moneyline. Thus, there is a large public position on Chicago and no resistance from bigger bettors going the other way. On the spread, 70% of the bets are on the Bears, with 63% of the handle. There remains an overwhelming public majority on the Bears, but on the spread, there is resistance from bigger bettors who are backing the Packers at -1.5 points. Love has the playoff experience over Caleb Williams, who is making his first postseason start. Starting quarterbacks making their first postseason start are 20-39-1 ATS (34%) since 2002 when playing a quarterback with playoff experience.
When it comes to the total, the bet percentage is nearly even. Just 51% of the bets are on the under, though the under is taking 60% of the handle. That means that while the public is evenly split on the total, bigger bettors are leaning towards the under. In the first matchup between these teams, they combined for 49 points, but the second matchup totaled just 38 points — despite going to overtime. The weather shouldn’t be too bad in Chicago, however. Since 2004, outdoor Wild Card games are 49-23 (68%) to the under.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Saturday’s game:
- Josh Jacobs Anytime TD Scorer (-120)
- Christian Watson Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
- D’Andre Swift Anytime TD Scorer (+155)
- Colston Loveland First TD Scorer (+215)
- Luther Burden III Anytime TD Scorer (+250)
Unsurprisingly, the public is betting on touchdown scorers. These are typically the most popular prop bets every week, and the list of players is not particularly surprising either. The top two players are both Packers, with starting running back Josh Jacobs leading the way and Christian Watson just behind him. Jacobs has 13 rushing touchdowns on the season, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. Christian Watson is tied for the team-high with six receiving touchdowns, despite only playing ten games this season. He was easily Love’s top target in the second half of the season.
On the Bears’ side, the public is betting on D’Andre Swift, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III to find the end zone. All of these players are a bit risky when it comes to touchdown betting. D’Andre Swift is splitting more time with Kyle Monangai down the stretch in this season, especially when it comes to goal-line carries. Meanwhile, the Bears’ two rookie pass catchers, Loveland and Burden, have both been fantastic this season. However, with DJ Moore and the returning Rome Odunze, on top of the two running backs, there are a lot of weapons at Chicago’s disposal. It could be worth taking the longest odds among these targets, making Burden the player to bet on.
