We have three games on Sunday. The early matchup features the No. 6 seed Bills going to Jacksonville to take on the No. 3 seed Jaguars. After that, the No. 6 seed 49ers head to Philadelphia to take on the No. 3 seed Eagles. The nightcap features the No. 7 seed Chargers facing the No. 2 seed Patriots in New England.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is -1.5 over the Jacksonville on the road with the total at 51.5. Philadelphia is -5.5 over San Francisco at home with the total at 44.5. New England is -3.5 over Los Angeles at home with the total at 45.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Sun).
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,000)
The Jaguars have impressively allowed the second-lowest EPA per dropback while intercepting a league-high 22 passes. That gave me some pause in regards to Allen, but the more I dug into the Jaguars defense and the rest of the quarterback pool, it was difficult for me to select anyone else. For starters, the Jaguars had one of the easiest schedules this season. Entering the season, it was ranked sixth-easiest by Sharp Football Analysis. Since the Week 8 bye, Jacksonville faced the Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, Titans twice, Colts twice and the Broncos.
The rushing equity is immense with Allen and he is essentially the engine for the Bills offense.
The total for this game is a whopping 51.5, the highest amongst all the games this week. With how soft the Bills rush defense is, the Jaguars should find some success and put up some points. And that will in turn force Allen to don the cape and do what he does, which is produce fantasy goodies.
Allen has two games over 40 FPTS this season, a ceiling that is unattainable for most.
Value
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots ($5,800)
Herbert is the only quarterback under $6,000, so there’s that. The offensive line is tattered and Herbert has exceeded 16 FPTS only once since Week 10. That said, the Patriots defense is built to stop the run, and the unit has posted the 11th-lowest EPA per carry. In addition, New England is only 24th in pressure rate so that provides some reprieve from the porous protection. Herbert has sneakily provided some rushing upside, scoring a touchdown while racking up 37, 42 and 66 yards in three of the last four weeks.
Running Back
Stud
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,600)
Etienne has received double-digit carries in all but one game this season, but only hit 20 carries twice. I think there’s a good chance he gets close to that number in this one. The Jaguars offensive line is rated better in pass protection, but the matchup is likely too juicy to not ground-and-pound. The Bills defense is structured to stop the pass. As a result, opponents have gashed the unit on the ground. Buffalo has allowed the third-highest EPA per carry with 24 rushing touchdowns and a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Etienne has exceeded 20 FPTS five times this season with a high of 31.5 FPTS. Points are expected to be scored in this one and Etienne should have plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.
Value
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($6,000)
Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson have essentially been splitting the snaps. Curiously, Stevenson out-targeted Henderson over the last few weeks, but Henderson received more red zone opportunities. Shrug. Henderson is the more explosive back and can score from anywhere on the field, so that coupled with the red zone looks has me leaning toward Henderson. I also know that he can do damage in the pass game. That said, if the projected ownership is heavily in favor of Henderson, I have no problem pivoting to Stevenson.
Wide Receiver
Stud
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,900)
It’s always rough for Brown because the Eagles are a low-volume passing offense. This season, with the offense being more vanilla than normal, Brown became visibly frustrated. Through the first seven weeks of the season, Brown finished with single-digit FPTS four times. Since the Week 9 bye, though, he put up double-digit FPTS in seven of eight games with a high of 38.2 FPTS. So things have gotten better. It wouldn’t surprise me if Brown explodes in this one. San Francisco has allowed the eighth-highest EPA per dropback with 29 touchdowns and only six interceptions. The main allure, though, is that the 49ers are 30th in pressure rate and dead-last in sacks.
Value
Brandin Cooks, Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500)
When Cooks joined the Bills in Week 13, he was only playing around 30% of the snaps. In Week 17, though, he was upped to 51% and hauled in four of six targets for 101 yards, good for 17.1 FPTS. Cooks was then rested for Week 18 in preparation for the playoffs, indicating that he’s viewed as an important piece for the Bills. Cooks is 32 years old but still provides juice and elements to the receiving group that can’t be replicated.
Tight End
Stud
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks ($4,200)
Goedert is dealing with a knee issue, but he was able to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday. Goedert has 82 targets on the season, the third-most on the team with 15 red zone opportunities. San Francisco used to be one of the best units at defending tight ends, but with the injury to linebacker Fred Warner, the 49ers have allowed the ninth-most FPTS to the position on average.
Value
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,300)
Dalton Kincaid is known more as the receiving tight end while Knox is more of a blocker, but Knox is tied with Kincaid with 49 targets on the season and Knox has 11 red zone opportunities, compared to eight for Kincaid. The Bills will likely tilt toward the air in this one and both tight ends could see opportunities, especially since the Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most FPTS to the position on average.
Defense/Special Teams
Eagles DST vs. San Francisco 49ers ($2,900)
Philadelphia has allowed the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback. The 14 passing touchdowns allowed are the fewest while the 56.9 completion percentage allowed is the lowest. The Eagles are 14th in pressure rate while the 42 sacks are tied for the eighth-most. All that is accomplished while blitzing at the third-lowest rate. Philadelphia held the Bills to 12 points two weeks ago while sacking Josh Allen five times. Brock Purdy can be susceptible to turnovers when trying to throw into tight windows while being pressured.
