Lucky us: we get to kick off Wild Card Sunday with a high-scoring matchup between two great teams. The Jaguars are 1.5-point favorites against the Bills on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 51.5 points. Jacksonville is -122 on the moneyline, and Buffalo is +102.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for each of the playoff games this weekend. I’ve laid out my strategy below, with two Captain’s Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (BUF @ JAX).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($16,500 CP) – No need to get cute here. Josh Allen has the most fantasy upside of any player in this game and will be relied on heavily to carry the offense in a projected shootout. Jacksonville’s defense is great at forcing turnovers from opposing quarterbacks, but Allen is not the kind of guy who melts down with a handful of picks. Jacksonville also allows a lot of passing volume, giving Allen the chance to stuff the stat sheet through the air.
On top of his passing upside, Allen will get heavy usage in the red zone as a runner. Buffalo will lean on its MVP to get them in the end zone when they’re at the business end of the field. Multiple passing and rushing scores are firmly on the table here, and there’s no sense in risking anyone else.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($14,400 CP) – If you’re feeling frisky and want to fade Allen, Travis Etienne is your man.
The Bills are unfamiliar with the concept of run defense. They’re 28th in total rush yards allowed, 30th in opponent yards per carry, and 31st in rushing touchdowns surrendered. It’s a veritable feast for any running back lucky enough to line up across from this Buffalo front seven.
Travis Etienne isn’t the best back in the league, but he’s consistently strong on the ground and can catch passes out of the backfield. The touchdown upside is huge here, and there is plenty of volume available for Jacksonville’s RB1. Even if you captain Josh Allen, I’d find a way to get Etienne into the lineup and pick up value elsewhere.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir ($7,800) – If you’re going to ride the Allen train, you might as well go all the way and add his top wide receiver. He brings a high target floor, drawing five-plus looks in 12 of 17 games this year. The touchdown upside hasn’t been high, but in a potential shootout, he should get a lot of looks and may find his way to the end zone. I love the Allen-Shakir stack on its own, but we’re not stopping there.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,400) – Let’s make it a triple stack. Kincaid has been an extremely efficient per-down tight end all season long, leading all TEs with a sterling 2.77 yards per route run. Jacksonville’s outstanding linebackers will be busy trying to contain Buffalo’s run game, which will create opportunities for Kincaid to get up the seams. I expect him to see heavy red zone usage as well.
Fades
Trevor Lawrence ($10,000) – This is not the matchup to play Jacksonville’s franchise QB. Lawrence is having an excellent year, but this is an elite Buffalo secondary that is not to be trifled with. They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards in the league this season while conceding a mere 19-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Conversely, the Jaguars’ ground game should be on fire against a weak Buffalo front seven. Lawrence is an underrated runner and should be involved on the ground, but it’s not enough for me to believe in him at this price. I’d shift my focus away from the Jaguars’ pass attack entirely for this one.
THE OUTCOME
Picking against Josh Allen in the NFL playoffs is a tough business. But the Bills drew a tough matchup in this Jaguars team, which always seems to win the turnover battle and play things close. Allen is sure to get his, but the strength of the Jacksonville defense and its run game should carry them to victory. It’ll be a big Sunday for Duval.
