Tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face off with the Memphis Grizzlies.
These teams have faced off twice this season, with both games resulting in double-digit victories in favor of the defending champions. But Oklahoma City has struggled a bit in recent games, with six of its seven losses on the season coming over the past month. Memphis also has plenty of intrigue surrounding it, especially following the reports of the organization exploring the trade market for Ja Morant for the first time.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Thunder enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -218 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Grizzlies are +180 underdogs with the game total set at 229.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter with a 31-7 record on the season, which is still comfortably the best record in the NBA. But the defending champions have lost six of their last 13 games, which is unfamiliar territory for a team that looked to be gunning for the all-time NBA record for wins in a season. Over just their past three games, they lost back-to-back to the Suns and Hornets, and narrowly defeated the Jazz in overtime. Overall, Oklahoma City is 19-19 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 20 of their 38 games played.
The Thunder are producing 121.4 points per game this season, which ranks second in the NBA. They rank fifth in offensive rating, third in field goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage, and 16th in pace. Defensively, Oklahoma City is holding opponents to 18.1 points per game, which is the best rate in the league. They also lead the league in defensive rating, rank first in opponents’ field goal percentage, but rank 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
It is a loaded injury report for the Thunder tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Nikola Topic, and Thomas Sorber each will miss the matchup tonight. Plenty of responsibility will be on the shoulders of Jalen Williams as he continues to work his way through some shooting struggles after missing the start of the year with an injury. Ajay Mitchell, Aaaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Lu Dort should also see some expanded opportunities.
It has been a turbulent season for the Memphis Grizzlies, with the Ja Morant trade conversations set to further stir things up. They hold a record of 16-21 on the season, and sit in 10th place in the Western Conference. Memphis enters this game having lost five of its last six. The Grizzlies are 16-21 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 23 of their 37 matchups.
Memphis is producing 115.2 points per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. They rank 24th in offensive rating, 26th in field goal percentage, 21st in three-point percentage, and fourth in pace. Defensively, they are allowing 116.6 points per game, which ranks 17th in the league. They rank 11th in defensive rating, 11th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 16th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Ja Morant will remain sidelined with a calf injury as the trade rumors heat up, while Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome, and Scottie Pippen Jr. also remain out. John Konchar is considered doubtful with a thumb issue, while Vince Williams Jr and Cedric Coward are listed as questionable.
Jaren Jackson Jr. headlines the production for Memphis, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Santi Aldama has scaled up his offensive role of late and is producing averages of 13.9 points and 6.7 rebounds, while rookie Cedric Coward has made an immediate impact by adding 13.7 points and 6.6 rebounds per game of his own. Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer have also been bright sports, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jock Landale, Christian Koloko, and Javon Small have had some nice moments.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Best Bet
Both these teams are battling some notable injury issues, and neither side is playing up to its desired standard. While my lean is toward the Thunder covering the 5.5-point spread and their depth shining through, I am backing the under of 229.5 points in this matchup.
The game total finished at 224 and 222 in the first two matchups between these two teams. The injuries to Oklahoma City change the equation to an extent, but it has been a clear philosophical goal in building out the roster that every player on the team has some level of two-way impact. Expect the defensive standard to remain high.
To this same point, Memphis will be limited in the number of scorers it truly possesses. No player on their roster averages more than 19 points per contest, and it takes the team playing at the fourth-quickest pace just to rank 19th in the league in points per game. The game total has gone under in 62.2% of their games played this season, as well as more than 50% of the games for the Thunder. Memphis has been limited to just 19 fast break points across the first two games against Oklahoma City, and their youthful reserves will have an athletic advantage in this game. Expect Memphis to struggle to push the pace and get out in transition.
The Grizzlies have been limited to 103 and 100 in the two matchups thus far, and should be in line for a similar level of output. With the Thunder’s top two scorers sidelined, expect points to be difficult to come by from Oklahoma City’s perspective. Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, and Aaron Wiggins will be good enough to produce a competent enough offense, but expectations should still be a bit limited. Buckle up for one ugly basketball and expect the game total to finish below 229.5 for the third straight time in the matchup between these two teams.
