The No. 1 Indiana Hurricanes take on the No. 5 Oregon Ducks in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. The Peach Bowl kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta, Georgia.
The Hoosiers are listed as 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 48.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best same game parlay for this College Football Playoff matchup.
Indiana vs. Oregon prediction, preview
This national semifinal between Indiana and Oregon is a rematch of a great game between the two during the regular season in Eugene. Oregon gave Indiana one of the biggest tests it had all season, and the Hoosiers delivered Oregon its only loss of the season. Indiana has passed every test this season, including beating Ohio State for the Big Ten title and destroying Alabama in the quarterfinals. However, arguably their toughest test yet will be trying to beat a great team for the second time.
So far in this College Football Playoff, there have been three rematches from regular-season games: Ole Miss-Tulane, Georgia-Ole Miss and Oklahoma-Alabama. Other than Ole Miss-Tulane, where there is clearly a massive talent gap, the team that won the regular-season matchup lost in the CFP. Last season, Oregon was a victim of this same situation. The Ducks beat Ohio State in the regular season, but fell to them in the quarterfinals of the CFP. Going back to 2021, Alabama dominated Georgia in the SEC Championship Game by 17 points, just for Georgia to get revenge in the national title game, beating Alabama by 15 points.
It is very difficult to beat a team as good as this Oregon squad twice. Oregon showed how dominant its offense can be in the first round, putting up 51 points on James Madison. In the quarterfinals, the Ducks flexed their defensive prowess, shutting out Texas Tech 23-0. Oregon is one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, with a potential top pick at quarterback, the best running game in the nation by EPA/rush and an elite defense, led by one of the nation’s best coaching staffs. If anybody has a chance to stop Indiana from winning a national title, it could be the Ducks.
Indiana vs. Oregon Same Game Parlay
My best same-game parlay bet for this semifinal is Oregon +7.5 parlayed with the first-half under 24.5 points. Using the same-game parlay feature, bettors can adjust the line to add protection to their bet. Taking the Oregon spread from 3.5 to 7.5 ensures that your same-game parlay can still win if the Ducks keep it within a touchdown. In the first matchup, these two teams were tied with ten minutes to play before Indiana made the winning plays down the stretch. The Hoosiers might pull out the win again, but the Ducks should be able to keep it close the whole way and have a great chance to win.
These are two of the best coaches in the country, with elite coaching staffs working under them. Both teams should make the correct adjustments to try to stop how their opponent beat them in the first matchup. These longer breaks in between playoff games give these coaches additional time to prep for these games. There should be a bit of a feeling-out period early on in this game, with both teams trying to run the football and no one wanting to be overly aggressive. These two defenses both rank within the top four in the nation in defensive EPA/dropback. Neither quarterback should be able to hit deep shots down the field. This should be a lower-scoring first half before the two coaches use halftime to make adjustments and find a way to win.
