Anything can happen in the NBA — the Portland Trail Blazers proved that recently with a standout victory over a contending Houston Rockets squad just a couple of days ago. That game went down to the wire, but Houston gets the opportunity for revenge tonight in the rematch to round out tonight’s 10-game NBA slate.
Here’s a Rockets vs. Trail Blazers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday night’s game.
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
Houston Rockets
It’s tough to make any major conclusions about this Rockets squad given their recent stretch of play. For much of November and December, Houston looked like one of the league’s most formidable teams. Now, the record sits at 22-12, sixth in the Western Conference, following recent losses to the Blazers and Mavericks.
The good news is that Rockets remain one of the NBA’s contenders by all accounts. The offense posts 118.9 PPG (ninth) while the defense holds opponents to 110.7 (third), and the team’s NETRTG of +8.3 sits second among all franchises. The identity of this roster is clear with the league’s best rebounding numbers by a fairly significant margin, playing tough defense and pulling down boards to create extra possessions and make up for the lack of a true point guard. Kevin Durant’s 26.1 PPG on 52.0% and 40.1% marks from the field and from three make him a virtual All-Star lock, but his co-star remains sidelined — Alperen Sengun (ankle) is still out tonight, slotting in Steven Adams as the starting center. That leaves Amen Thompson as the next up in the pecking order with 18.2 PPG, 7.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists. Three other players average double-digit points between forwards Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. as well as young guard Reed Sheppard.
Other than Sengun, the Rockets’ injury report is largely clean while Fred VanVleet nurses his ACL recovery.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers entered the campaign with hopes of earning a playoff berth for the first time since 2021. Early results didn’t really encourage such an outcome, but the team’s showing signs of growth having clawed near the .500 mark with an 18-20 record and six wins over the last 10 games.
Portland’s identity is tougher to determine, but the unit sits eighth in pace and does generally push the tempo. Scoring 116.5 PPG (16th) and allowing 119.1 PPG on the other end (23rd), it’s clear some defensive work is needed to improve from a -2.6 NETRTG that ranks 22nd. However, the Trail Blazers do sit eighth in rebounding and ninth in opponent turnovers, so disruption is often the name of the game. At the individual level, Deni Avdija leads the team with 26.3 PPG along with 7.2 boards and 7.0 assists, and he’s on an absolute tear lately with 34.3 PPG over his last four outings. Shaedon Sharpe pressures the rim well and posts 21.5 PPG, but some injuries to veterans have Portland leaning on other talent at the moment beyond those top two. Toumani Camara averages 12.8 PPG as a two-way force and starting center Donovan Clingan posts a double-double of 11.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game while leading the league with 4.5 offensive boards.
The injury report is extensive for Portland with Jerami Grant (Achilles), Scoot Henderson (hamstring) and Jrue Holiday (calf) all still out. Additionally, Kris Murray (back) and Matisse Thybulle (knee) are also sidelined.
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets at -6.5 on the road tonight with -245 odds on the Moneyline. The Trail Blazers are +200 ML underdogs with the game total set at 221.5 points. Betting splits show 83% of straight wagers on Houston to win with 73% picking the over.
The last meeting between these teams was decided in the final minutes as Portland won 103-102. Sengun also missed that one, but Houston took the first meeting back in November with a 140-116 final score. It’s fair to expect something between those two outcomes tonight, though. Last time out, the Rockets received virtually no scoring support off the bench with just 13 points, and it took a 41-point outing from Avdija to secure the upset for the Blazers. While he’s playing well, beating the same team twice in a row isn’t always the easiest task and Ime Udoka should figure out ways to slow down the blossoming star and force other players to step up.
The Rockets are 12-9 ATS this season on the road while the Trail Blazers are 11-7 at home, so there’s not a significant disparity there. With Houston likely upping the tempo some without Sengun, the visitors should match their opponents’ pace and look to Thompson plenty in transition. The Rockets are also the more efficient team at 11th in TS% compared to the Blazers’ mark at 25th, so watch for the shooting numbers to play out more like they have all season as the better team gets its revenge for Wednesday.
Top pick: HOU Rockets -6.5 (-115)
