The Africa Cup of Nations has reached its final eight, and unlike in seasons past, this tournament has gone exactly as expected: the eight remaining teams are among the 10 highest-ranked teams on the continent, per the latest FIFA World Rankings. The other two members of that top 10 (Tunisia and DR Congo) both lost either in extra time or on penalties in the Round of 16. That means that all four of the quarterfinal matchups should be difficult to predict.
The quarterfinals will start this afternoon with a pair of matches. In the later match, the continent’s highest-ranked remaining team, Morocco, will play the lowest-ranked remaining team, Cameroon, in Rabat. The match is set to begin at 2 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local). The winner is set to face either Algeria or Nigeria in the semifinals next Wednesday.
The Atlas Lions are -155 favorites to win (-360 to advance) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Indomitable Lions are +500 (+270 to advance). There are +260 odds that the teams will require extra time.
Cameroon vs. Morocco prediction, pick
Based on the way each side has played this tournament, Morocco shouldn’t be as heavy of a favorite as it is. While the Atlas Lions topped Group A with a solid plus-five goal differential, their draw against Mali marked the end of their 20-match winning streak, and in that match, they gave up their first goal since March 21. But the Eagles are a good team, especially defensively, so the draw arguably wasn’t as disappointing a result as Morocco’s 1-0 win over lowly Tanzania in the Round of 16, given that the Taifa Stars picked up just two points in the group stage, the fewest ever by any AFCON knockout participant. Cameroon, meanwhile, has been more impressive relative to expectations, only narrowly finishing second behind Ivory Coast in the group stage and striking well on the counter-attack to beat a tough South Africa side in the Round of 16.
In terms of star talent, the Atlas Lions certainly have a stronger squad. Paris Saint-Germain right-back and national team captain Achraf Hakimi just concluded one of the finest individual seasons by any African player ever, and he’s proven his quality since returning from a severe ankle sprain, assisting Brahim Díaz’s winning goal against Tanzania and whipping in nine crosses in that match. Díaz has been the star, leading the tournament with four goals, and Ayoub El Kaabi has three, including two spectacular bicycle kicks. Plus, Morocco’s defense is arguably the strongest in Africa: its entire back line plays in one of Europe’s top-five leagues, and each is among the most well-rounded players at his position, ranking highly in both attacking and defending categories. The Atlas Lions have been so impenetrable in the back, in fact, that they’ve forced Yassine Bounou to make just three saves, with Mali’s lone goal coming via a penalty kick. As a testament to how well-rounded Morocco’s squad is, it ranks fourth in tackles, third in shots on target per 90 minutes, and first in fouls drawn.
The Indomitable Lions rank highly in many stats, too. Instead of bringing Vincent Aboubakar, the second-leading scorer in the country’s history, Cameroon opted to trust its youth, starting Bayer Leverkusen wunderkind Christian Kofane alongside Bryan Mbeumo in three of its four matches and Levante’s Karl Etta Eyong in the other. The two youngsters have repaid manager David Pagou’s faith, combining for three goals, with 22-year-old Stoke City defensive midfielder Junior Tchamadeu smashing home the other. Plus, Mbeumo’s 16.7% shooting accuracy is almost certain to climb back towards the 54.8% he’s posted in the Premier League this season. Like the Atlas Lions, the Indomitable Lions are more than capable of building from the back, as they typically play a defensive 3-4-1-2 formation, with center-backs Nouhou Tolo and Samuel Kotto among the best distributional defenders in their respective leagues. Cameroon has definitely benefited from opponents putting a tournament-low 18.9% of their shots on target, especially since Devis Epassy probably isn’t as good as the absent André Onana, but the fact that it has won the second-most tackles suggests that the quality of its defense isn’t a total fluke.
Ultimately, in a battle between two teams with similar play-styles, I’ll take the hosts. The Indomitable Lions easily have enough talent to progress far into the competition, but they’ve drawn an extremely difficult quarterfinal matchup. Eventually, Morocco’s relative inability to put the ball in the back of the net could come back to bite it against a more dangerous attack — say, Nigeria’s — but until Mbeumo starts putting the ball on target, Cameroon isn’t likely to put enough goals past Bounou to force the issue. In particular, it’s the Indomitable Lions’ inability to defend crosses — they’ve allowed the sixth-most so far this tournament — that concerns me, especially given Hakimi’s ability to swing passes into the box. I’ll take Hakimi to assist Díaz again in front of a raucous home crowd reveling in victory.
