The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. The Fiesta Bowl kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday in Glendale, Arizona.
The Hurricanes are listed as 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 52.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best same-game parlay for this College Football Playoff matchup.
Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction, preview
Miami and Ole Miss face off in the unlikeliest of College Football Playoff semifinal matchups. The Hurricanes were the last at-large bid in the field, then had to pull off two upsets to get here, including one over the defending national champions. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has been without its head coach from the regular season for its two postseason wins, including coming back from a two-score halftime deficit against Georgia. One of these teams will get the chance to compete for a national title, and it should be a great battle to earn that privilege.
This is not only an intriguing matchup because of the journeys these teams had to take to get here, but also because of the contrasting styles of these two teams. Miami has one of the best defenses in the country. On the road against Texas A&M and against Ohio State, it gave up a combined 17 points. It has not given up more than 20 points in regulation since its Oct. 17th loss to Louisville, and it has not given up more than 24 points all season. Miami has a great run game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr., and a couple of great wide receivers. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck has been great in the College Football Playoff as well. While his stats aren’t flashy, he has made all of the big throws on third downs and in the red zone to get Miami wins in its first two games.
On the other side, Ole Miss has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. After not entering the season as the starter, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation. Down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two games of the CFP, he has been playing on a Heisman level. Chambliss’ escapability and playmaking against Georgia were at the highest level that you will ever see in college football. That will be essential against this elite Miami defensive line. If Ole Miss can run the ball with the great Kewan Lacy, it will keep that front seven honest and open up the passing game for Chambliss.
Miami vs. Ole Miss Same Game Parlay
My favorite same-game parlay bet for this game is Ole Miss +4.5 and over 50.5 points. One of the best ways to utilize the same-game parlay feature is by adjusting alternate lines to avoid getting burned on key numbers. For example, bumping Ole Miss up to +4.5 provides a bit of extra security if this game comes down to the wire. When it comes to the total, there is a big difference between o50.5 and o52.5. Over the last 25 years in college football, 51 is the second-most common final total, and 52 is the ninth-most common final total. Throughout that 25-year sample size, 5.41% of college football games have finished with a total of 51 or 52 points. That is why moving the total down just two points is so valuable with the over/under floating in such a key position.
Ole Miss has arguably the best running back in the country, Kewan Lacy, and a quarterback playing better than anyone in the nation, Trinidad Chambliss. In the first round, Miami faced a Texas A&M offense with no real run game to speak of. Ohio State’s Bo Jackson is a solid back, but he is nowhere near Lacy’s level, and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is not mobile whatsoever. Miami has been allowed to do what it does best in the first two rounds, which is get after the quarterback in obvious passing situations. That will not be the case against Ole Miss. The Hurricanes will need to respect the run game, both from Lacy and Chambliss. Chambliss will also do a much better job of evading the pass rush and extending plays than Sayin or Marcel Reed were able to do.
On the other side, Miami should be able to move the ball as well. Between Mark Fletcher Jr. on the ground and Carson Beck through the air, this offense has been effective at moving the ball down the field, despite not scoring very many points. This will be Miami’s easiest defensive opponent of the College Football Playoff so far. It should be able to create more explosive plays and convert more of its drives into touchdowns. Ole Miss has scored at least 30 points in eight straight games and should continue that offensive success. Meanwhile, Miami should be able to put up points of its own, just like Georgia did in the previous round. This should be a tight game that comes down to the wire, with both teams getting into the high 20s or 30s.
