The Miami Hurricanes defeated the Ole Miss Rebels by a final score of 31–27 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ (Fiesta Bowl). Coming in as the spread favorite, Miami covered the spread, and the total went over relative to the closing line.
Betting Line Movement
DraftKings Sportsbook closed with Miami as -3 favorites and the total set at 52.5 points (ML: Miami -162, Ole Miss +136).
Final Score: Miami 31, Ole Miss 27
Spread Result: ✅ — Miami covered (-3)
Total Result: ✅ — Over 52.5
Moneyline: ✅ — Miami ML cashed
Public Betting Trends (DraftKings Betting Splits)
Spread
✅ Miami -3: 44% bets / 51% handle (covered)
❌ Ole Miss +3: 56% bets / 49% handle (did not cover)
Moneyline
✅ Miami ML: 44% bets / 44% handle (won)
❌ Ole Miss ML: 56% bets / 56% handle (lost)
Total Points
✅ Over 52.5: 44% bets / 47% handle (58 points scored)
❌ Under 52.5: 56% bets / 53% handle
Trends Analysis
Public sentiment leaned toward Ole Miss on both the spread and moneyline, but the outcome contradicted that tilt as Miami won and covered the field goal. The total also flipped the consensus, sailing over 52.5 despite a majority of tickets and handle on the Under. From the preview, our projection leaned Miami’s way on the ML and spread — both cashed — but missed on the total (projected Under). The preview’s defensive angle largely showed up situationally: Ole Miss settled for four field goals (including a 58-yarder), reflecting Miami’s bend-don’t-break stops even while allowing 398 total yards. However, the havoc/turnover edge did not materialize on the stat sheet (Miami 0 takeaways; Miami threw 1 INT), making red-zone and drive-finishing the difference.
Key Box Score Notes
- Total yards: Miami 459, Ole Miss 398.
- Explosives: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy broke a 73-yard run; Miami WR Keelan Marion had a 52-yard catch.
- Pressure: Ole Miss logged 4 sacks; Miami had 1 sack.
- Kicking: Ole Miss K Lucas Carneiro went 4/5 FGs (long 58); Miami 1/2 FGs.
Looking Ahead
Miami advances to the CFP National Championship behind a balanced 459-yard output and timely stops that forced four Rebel field goals. For bettors, watch two trends:
- Protection vs. pressure: Miami allowed 4 sacks — a point of emphasis next game.
- Skill-position form: Keelan Marion (7/114/1) and Malachi Toney (5/81/1) both cleared impact thresholds, while Mark Fletcher Jr. churned out 133 rushing yards despite no TD.
Ole Miss’ season closes at 13–2; the Rebels will rue red-zone stalls and missed chances in a game where they won the sack battle and the turnover margin but couldn’t convert enough drives into touchdowns.