There are 12 games on the NBA schedule this Wednesday, and while it may not be the most competitive matchup of the evening, there’s still some intrigue in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are a mere 5-5 over their last 10 games and appear mortal for the first time all season after an unstoppable start. The visiting Utah Jazz are near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, but could they potentially keep this game close?
Here’s a Jazz vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s contest.
Jazz vs. Thunder prediction, preview
Utah Jazz
We’ll start with the Jazz here, who visit OKC with a 12-23 record this season and enter tonight on a four-game losing streak. Those results are expected for Utah, which has the NBA’s fifth-worst NETRTG at -7.2, but there are occasional signs of encouragement for this roster.
The offense is genuinely quite good, averaging 119.6 PPG (sixth-most) thanks to a very solid collection of talent. Lauri Markkanen has weathered the storm of this rebuild and looks like an All-Star once more with 27.7 PPG and 6.8 rebounds, but at 28 years old, he may not fit the long-term timeline of this team. The larger story is Keyonte George, the 22-year-old guard in the midst of a breakout campaign with 24.3 PPG and 6.8 assists a night. The Baylor product is blossoming into a legitimate foundational piece here, and some of his young teammates show signs of potential as well. No. 5 pick Ace Bailey posts 10.4 PPG and enters this game with a questionable tag after missing a couple of weeks, while Isaiah Collier, Bryce Sensabaugh and Kyle Filipowski play complimentary roles. Veterans such as Jusuf Nurkic and Svi Mykhailiuk also see plenty of minutes, too. The problem lies in the defense, though. The Jazz are very vulnerable on that end with 127.0 PPG allowed, the most of any team. Bleeding points at this rate makes it difficult to win games, even despite ranking first in AST% as well as middle-of-the-pack in underlying stats like REB% and TS%.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The reigning champions require no introduction, especially with just one loss prior to December 10 and a 30-7 record overall. The Thunder still sit first in NETRTG by a wide margin at +13.5, but ugly losses to Phoenix and Charlotte show they’re not quite unbeatable.
Oklahoma City remains a dominant force on both ends with 121.2 PPG (second-most) and 107.6 PPG allowed (best in the NBA). It’s easy to see where that success comes from, too. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (questionable; knee) averages a cool 31.6 PPG and 6.4 assists as one of the league’s brightest stars, and Chet Holmgren has played excellent ball this season with 18.1 PPG, 8.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per outing. They’re joined by Jalen Williams, a fellow All-Star who posts 17.2 PPG with a hair over five boards and dimes a night as well. His play has wavered, though, and certain segments of the fanbase would argue his presence is what interrupted the team’s 24-1 start. His presence will be key if Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t play, but role players like Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins are also capable of stepping up themselves to fill the void. The Thunder do miss center Isaiah Hartenstein as he remains sidelined due to injury, and they’re just 18th in REB% on the campaign overall. However, the team sits third in TS% and second in AST/TO ratio while also creating more turnovers than any other team.
Jazz vs. Thunder pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Thunder as very heavy -17.5 favorites at home tonight with -1200 odds on the Moneyline. The Jazz are +750 ML underdogs with the game total set at 240.5 points. Betting splits show 88% of straight wagers on Oklahoma City to win with 64% picking the under.
Given the state of both rosters, it’s easy to understand why the Thunder are such heavy favorites. The Jazz have relatively few expectations and are on the road here. Bailey being questionable and Kevin Love (rest) missing this one don’t quite help the outlook, but the team is already 5-9 ATS as an away underdog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 11-8 ATS as a home favorite and 4-2 ATS after a loss, but the group has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks. This is an absurdly wide spread at 17.5 points which will likely move if Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t play. Covering it to begin with may prove difficult against a Utah team that scores plenty of points, but if the Thunder’s superstar winds up sitting out (a distinct possibility given the matchup), we could easily see the Jazz keep things within 17 points. I’d rather get in on Utah to cover now along with the other 55% of wagers leaning that direction — the champs are an elite team, but that line remains far too high for my liking.
Top pick: UTA Jazz +17.5 (+108)
