Western Conference foes will meet on Wednesday at the FedExForum. The Suns (21-15) have been a major surprise, emerging as a postseason contender even after trading away Kevin Durant. Now, Phoenix will hope to continue its winning ways against one of the NBA’s most disappointing squads. Between off-court issues and inconsistent play, the Grizzlies (16-20) have disappointed all year. Still, Memphis remains on track for a play-in spot.
Can the Grizzlies defend home court, or will the Suns continue their terrific season? Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Wednesday’s Phoenix Suns vs. Memphis Grizzlies matchup.
The Suns are 4.5-point favorites (-112) over the Grizzlies on DraftKings Sportsbook. Phoenix is favored at -185 on the moneyline. The total for this matchup is set at 232.5 points.
Suns vs. Grizzlies prediction, preview
No player is more emblematic of the 2025-26 Suns than Dillon Brooks. The former journeyman appears to have found a home in the desert. Through 30 games, he’s averaging a career-best 21.2 points on 46/34/84 shooting splits. In addition, the Canadian is one of the NBA’s biggest pests on the other end of the floor. That hard-nosed attitude appears to have rubbed off on Brooks’ teammates. Phoenix is tenth in defensive rating (113.9), a drastic improvement from last season’s 28th ranking.
However, with respect to Brooks, the Suns are still Devin Booker’s team. The two-time All-NBA selection has been his usual lethal self on offense. This season, he’s posted 25.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. The guard has put up those numbers despite an inefficient 30% shooting percentage from three-point range. It’s only a matter of time until the Kentucky alum sees positive regression in that regard. Still, he remains a terrific distributor even when the shot isn’t falling.
Phoenix’s transformation into a defensive-first squad is due in large part to generating turnovers. The Suns lead all of basketball with 10.6 steals per game. Quality role players such as Ryan Dunn, Jordan Goodwin, and Royce O’Neale have all done their part. On offense, sharpshooters such as Grayson Allen and Collin Gillespie have been crucial as well. Phoenix is knocking down 14.1 three-pointers per game, ninth-most in the association.
A deep, dangerous Suns squad poses several problems for the home team tonight. Phoenix’s penchant for inducing steals is especially worrisome. Memphis has coughed up the NBA’s 11th-most turnovers per game (15.2) this season. The Grizzlies operate at the fourth-quickest pace in basketball. That’s a plus against some teams, but not one that excels at creating chaos. To make matters worse, point guard Ja Morant (calf) is currently listed as day-to-day. In his absence, some combination of Cam Spencer and Vince Williams Jr. would serve as lead ball handler. On the second leg of a back-to-back, that certainly wouldn’t be ideal.
With that being said, the Grizzlies have the personnel to make this game ugly. After all, they rank 11th in the association with a 113.9 defensive rating. It all starts down low with Jaren Jackson Jr. The former Defensive Player of the Year is one of the sport’s best two-way players. This season, he’s recorded 18.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. On the other end of the floor, he’s added 0.9 steals and 1.5 blocks. On Tuesday vs. San Antonio, JJJ swatted three shots while notching 21 points and nine rebounds. A similar output tonight would give Memphis’ upset bid a major boost.
Suns vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
The biggest difference between these two clubs is depth. On paper, that should be a strength for the Grizzlies. However, this group has been plagued by injuries all season. As a result, there’s not many quality reserves at head coach Tuomas Iisalo’s disposal. That’s before factoring in the potential loss of Morant and fellow guard Cedric Coward (ankle). In comparison, the Suns come into this contest as the healthier, more well-rested team. To top it off, they’ll have the best player on the court in Booker. Phoenix, winners in six of its last eight games, is poised for another victory on Wednesday.
