On the night of the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft, one of the most widely-panned deals in league history went down. The New Orleans Pelicans, who were selecting with the 23rd overall pick, clearly had their eyes on Maryland center Derik Queen, but he was never going to fall that far. So the Pelicans traded up to 13th overall, giving the Atlanta Hawks their unprotected 2026 first-round pick in the process.
The move has been a disaster. That’s nothing against Queen, who’s been fantastic, but New Orleans has the league’s second-worst record, and next summer’s draft class is supposed to be one of the strongest in years, with three high-level prospects in Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cam Boozer.
Queen will face off against the Hawks for the first time in his career tonight when the teams meet for a 7:30 p.m. ET clash in Atlanta. The Pelicans have a lengthy injury report on the second night of a back-to-back, with Herb Jones (ankle) and Trey Murphy III (ankle/back) questionable and Saddiq Bey (hip) and Jose Alvarado (oblique) out. Meanwhile, the Hawks will be without point guard Trae Young (quad), who’s reportedly entering his final days with the franchise, and Onyeka Okongwu (illness) is questionable.
Atlanta is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-470 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 245.5. New Orleans is +360 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s inter-conference matchup and offer my prediction.
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks preview, prediction
For the Hawks, Young has been the focus of the media’s attention, as this season has made it abundantly clear that Atlanta plays better without him. His repeated absences this season have allowed Jalen Johnson to emerge as one of the league’s best jumbo playmakers and as a sure-fire All-Star. The Hawks are 0-4 when starting Young alongside Johnson, Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher and 9-6 when Nickeil Alexander-Walker starts in place of Young. Alexander-Walker provides the length and defense that Young lacks, and he’s averaging 20.5 points per game on 45-38-77 shooting splits, which are better numbers than Young’s.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, have plenty of talent, but that talent is just young and inexperienced. Queen has had flashes (a 33-point triple-double on December 8), but he’s also taken his rookie lumps, as his promising jumper isn’t falling yet. Fellow lottery pick Jeremiah Fears also hasn’t been particularly efficient, although 14.3 points per game is solid for any rookie. New Orleans’ best player might not be on the team for long, though: Murphy, who’s averaging 21.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, is one of the league’s most widely-coveted assets. If he leaves, the Pelicans’ already rough season could get worse.
Pelicans at Hawks pick, best bet
The writing was on the wall for Young when he was out from October 29 to December 14, and in that span, Atlanta went 14-9 with top-half units on both sides of the ball. Young has still helped the offense when he’s been on the court — with him setting the table, the Hawks have scored 121.1 points per 100 possessions (which would be the league’s fifth-best mark), and without him, they’ve dropped to the equivalent of the 16th-best offense — but while Atlanta can survive having an average offense, it can’t survive having a defense 6.8 points per 100 possessions more porous than the league’s second-worst unit. It also can’t survive a 43.2% total rebounding percentage, which would be by far the worst in NBA history.
With or without Young, the Hawks haven’t been a great rim-protecting team — during his absence, they allowed the 10th-most tries at the rim — but they’ve been better than New Orleans has. The Pelicans have allowed the sixth-most shots at the rim overall, including the most during their eight-game losing streak, and they’ve allowed opponents to convert at an average rate. That weakness should play into Atlanta’s strengths: the Hawks have gotten downhill at the ninth-highest rate without Young and shot the eighth-highest percentage once they get there. New Orleans has attempted shots at the rim at the league’s highest rate, thanks to the one-man wrecking crew known as Zion Williamson, but it hasn’t been very accurate inside: Fears, in particular, has been the least efficient high-volume finisher in basketball. The Pelicans’ finishing might be even worse if Murphy sits, given that the 25-year-old has shot 76.5% from the restricted area.
Atlanta should have more second-chance and transition opportunities. New Orleans has been a bottom-tertile rebounding team despite having an athletic marvel in Williamson and a solid center in Queen, because both are undersized for their position at six-foot-six and six-foot-nine, respectively. While the Hawks haven’t been a good rebounding team — they ranked 20th in total rebounding percentage during Young’s longer absence — they should be able to hang with the Pelicans on the glass with seven-foot-two Kristaps Porziņġis healthy for now. They’ve also averaged among the most deflections and loose balls recovered, as well as among the most points off of turnovers and fast-break points. New Orleans has been pretty careful with the ball for its youth and inexperience, but Atlanta should still have the edge.
The key for the Hawks will be knocking down their shots. Across their eight-game losing streak, the Pelicans have conceded the second-most wide-open three-point attempts, the second-most corner threes, and the third-most catch-and-shoot looks. Atlanta has been among the league’s best teams at generating catch-and-shoot, wide-open, and corner triples, even without Young, and it has made shots at north of a 40% clip in all three categories. It was also among the league’s better teams at closing out on opposing shooters, even though it got a bit fortunate that opponents converted such shots at the fourth-lowest rate. Neither team has elite individual shooters, but New Orleans’ are certainly worse than the Hawks’.
Atlanta should win this game, and it should be high-scoring. But while I’m worried about the Pelicans’ defensive exploitability in both the interior and exterior, I’m really not buying their offense, especially if their best shooter and finisher, Murphy, sits. The Hawks haven’t performed well recently on defense, even without Young, but prior to his return, they posted nearly a seven-week stretch with above-average defensive metrics, and 245.5 is a very high bar. Three of each team’s last five games have gone under the point total.
