The Warriors are hosting the Bucks on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 228.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Warriors vs. Bucks preview, prediction
The Warriors are just one game above .500 this season at 19-18 and they rank 13th in net rating, but Golden State has been better of late, winning six of its last 10. The Warriors play strong defense and move the ball well, ranking sixth in defensive rating and third in assist percentage, but they struggle to score the ball.
Golden State ranks 20th in offensive rating and 27th in field-goal percentage (45.2%), which is pretty mind-boggling with one of the greatest shooters of all-time in Stephen Curry at the helm. The problem is, the Warriors severely lack scorers outside of Curry and Jimmy Butler, and the team relies on those two too much on offense.
Golden State has had its moments when the squad shoots well, which mostly happens when the team is on its home floor and luckily for the Warriors, that is the case tonight. This season, Golden State is 11-5 at home, compared to 8-13 on the road. Tonight will be the second matchup of the season between the Warriors and the Bucks, and Milwaukee took the first matchup on its home floor 120-110 back on Oct. 30th, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo not playing.
The Bucks are just 16-20 and rank 21st in net rating this season, but Antetokounmpo is healthy again after missing nearly almost all of December with a calf injury. The former MVP is coming off a 37-point near-triple-double vs. the Kings on Sunday, where Milwaukee won 115-98. The Bucks are 13-9 with Antetokounmpo active this season and they are a far better team with him healthy, but they still have flaws, as in very similar fashion to the Warriors, the Bucks struggle to find offense outside of their best player.
Antetokounmpo has been impressive when facing the Warriors in Golden State, scoring at least 31 points in each of his last five visits to the Bay Area, and the Bucks will need Antetokounmpo to have a vintage performance tonight if they want to upset the Warriors on their home floor.
Warriors vs. Bucks pick, best bet
While the Bucks were able to beat the Warriors back in October without Antetokounmpo, this was on their home floor and felt fluky as just the fifth game of the season. Golden State is a much better team at home and the Warriors should be able to even this season series up with a win over Milwaukee tonight.
Covering this 6.5-point spread, however, is a different battle and backing the Bucks +6.5 makes sense. While Golden State is 11-5 at home, the team is still only 8-8 ATS on its home floor. The Warriors are just 16-21 ATS overall and they are 11-15 ATS when favored. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 10-9 ATS as an underdog and more importantly, 13-9 ATS with Antetokounmpo active.
