The Premier League is slightly more than halfway through its season, with each team having played 20 of its 38 matches, and a lot is still up in the air. Besides Arsenal, which has separated itself atop the table on 48 points, and Wolves, who have separated themselves on the bottom with six points, the league is still wide open: fourth-place Liverpool is just seven points ahead of 14th-place Crystal Palace.
Two of those teams in the mid-table morass are Chelsea, which sits in fifth on 31 points, and Fulham, which is 11th on 28 points. They’ll play each other for the second time this season at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local) at Craven Cottage.
The Blues are +115 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Cottagers are +230, with +260 odds of a draw.
Fulham vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
Neither of these teams have been defined by consistency. Fulham has been in the stronger recent form, picking up 11 points from its last five matches while Chelsea has managed merely six, but the Blues played a harder schedule and just out-played Manchester City at the Etihad. Both teams’ general trend is clear, though: the Cottagers got off to a hot start, had a rough stretch in the middle of the season, and are starting to regain their early form, while Chelsea had a slow start, rebounded in the middle of the season, and has cooled back down somewhat. The Blues’ best wins — in particular, a 3-0 thrashing of Barcelona in the Champions League — have been more impressive, but their 3-1 loss to newly-promoted Leeds stands as the most disappointing result that either team has put up.
Despite Chelsea’s inconsistency, the overall numbers look pretty good. It has had a pretty balanced scoring attack this season, with six different players scoring at least three goals, and Enzo Fernández and João Pedro lead the way with six each. As a result of their depth, the Blues have scored the fourth-most goals in the league, and several have been created by excellent buildup play in the back from fullbacks Reece James, Malo Gusto, and Marc Cucurella, who have each registered multiple assists. But despite their defenders being attacking-oriented, they haven’t sacrificed defense, allowing the fourth-fewest goals in the Premier League, in part because of Robert Sánchez’s strong play in between the sticks. Chelsea has also allowed the third-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, posted the fourth-highest tackle rate on challenges, and intercepted the most passes, though the fact that opponents have attempted the third-shortest average shot in the Premier League suggests that it has gotten somewhat lucky defensively.
The same could be said for Fulham, which has had a strong defensive identity. The Cottagers actually lead the league in tackle percentage on challenges, have allowed the sixth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, and have recorded the ninth-most clearances. The difference is that Bernd Leno has been less impressive between the sticks, saving only 64.8% of his opportunities and ranking fifth-to-last in post-shot expected goal plus/minus. Fulham also hasn’t had as strong of an attack, scoring five fewer goals than Chelsea and attempting 1.25 fewer shots on target per 90 minutes. Though the Cottagers, too, have a six-goal scorer in Welshman Harry Wilson, their attack just doesn’t have quite as much overall talent as the Blues’ does, and two of their regular starters (Alex Iwobi and Calvin Bassey) are out on duty with the Nigerian national team. Iwobi, in particular, is a huge loss, as he’s the central midfield anchor to counter Chelsea’s strong midfield trio.
I’m not sure that one strong performance against City is enough for me to be convinced that the Blues’ interim boss Calum McFarlane is the long-term answer (as of this writing, Chelsea hasn’t yet hired Liam Rosenior, and McFarlane is expected to manage against Fulham regardless), but the Blues should be the slightly better team, especially with the Cottagers’ Nigerian trio still in Morocco. Plus, on a relative basis, Chelsea has been stronger on the road than Fulham has been at home. I’ll take the favorites to edge out a narrow victory in this one.
