The Creighton Bluejays will take on the Villanova Wildcats in a Big East clash with tip-off scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Both sides sit in the top five of the conference standings and should be mostly satisfied with their start to the season.
These programs have faced off on the basketball court 30 times in their history. Villanova has come out victorious in 19 of these matchups, although Creighton has won the last three games played between them, including the 62-60 thriller last season.
Looking at the odds, Villanova enters as a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 143.5 points. Creighton holds +205 odds of pulling off the outright upset.
Creighton at Villanova prediction, preview
The Creighton Bluejays enter with a 9-6 overall record on the season and are 3-1 in Big East Conference play. They are looking to bounce back from their lone conference loss in the previous game against Seton Hall, and also have come up short against Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Baylor, and Gonzaga this season. Their most impressive wins have come over Butler and Oregon so far. Creighton is 7-8 against the spread and the game total has gone under in 11 of their 15 matchups.
Creighton is averaging 77.5 points per game this season, which ranks 184th among the 365 D1 programs. The Bluejays rank 138th in offensive rating, 158th in team field goal percentage and 161st in three-point percentage, but attempt the 24th-most perimeter shots in the country. Defensively, opponents are scoring 70.4 points per game against the Bluejays, which ranks 107th in the country. They rank 135th in defensive rating, 127th in opponent field goal percentage, 168th in opponent three-point percentage, and are allowing the eighth-fewest free-throw attempts per contest.
Josh Dix leads the team in scoring with 12.0 points per game, along with 4.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Jasen Green and Austin Swartz are the lone two other players averaging double figures, combining for 20.4 points per contest. Green leads the team with 5.4 rebounds per game, while Owen Freeman, Blake Harper, and Jackson McAndrew each pitch in at least 4.5 boards per contest. Swartz is also shooting 39.8% on his three-point attempts this season. Isaac Traudt also plays a notable role in the rotation.
A new era of Villanova basketball started this season with Kevin Willard taking the head coaching gig, and the early results have been encouraging. The Wildcats enter with a 12-2 overall record and are 3-0 in Big East play. Their pair of losses were both against top-10 opponents BYU and Michigan. Villanova’s most impressive win is likely the 10-point overtime victory against Wisconsin. The Wildcats are 10-4 against the spread and the game total has gone under in eight of their 14 games to this point.
As a team, Villanova is averaging 78.6 points per game, which ranks 151st among D1 teams. The Wildcats rank 53rd in offensive rating, 132nd in field goal percentage, and 47th in three-point efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 66.9 points per game against the Wildcats. This ranks 41st in the country, and they rank 110th in defensive rating, 166th in opponent field goal percentage, and 299th in opponent three-point percentage.
Bryce Lindsey leads the team in scoring at 16.9 points per game, along with 2.4 assists and a Big East-leading 44.7% three-point percentage. Acaden Lewis and Duke Brennan each add 12.0 points per game of their own, with Brennan leading the team with 11.7 rebounds per game. Tyler Perkins and Matthew Hodge also average in double figures, while Devin Askew also plays a notable role in the rotation.
Creighton vs. Villanova pick, best bet
They still have to prove themselves further to be viewed as the consistent National Championship threats they were under Jay Wright, but Villanova basketball is trending in the right direction. The program has begun to find an identity again and the results are following. Villanova enters this matchup with the superior defense, a stronger interior presence, more consistent perimeter shooting, and more talented scorers on the roster. With the home crowd behind them, this is a great chance for the Wildcats to add to their strong record with another win.
Creighton looked to be figuring things out offensively, but completely stalled against Seton Hall in the previous game. The Bluejays were limited to just 54 points in the matchup, shooting 35% from the field and 22% on three-point attempts. Villanova’s defense has been a consistent bright spot, and points will not be much easier to come by. While Villanova can be vulnerable to opponents from beyond the three-point line, Creighton is not equipped with the caliber of shooters to take advantage of this.
Both these teams allow fewer than 71 points per game and are content playing at a slower pace. Expect points to be difficult to come by for both teams and for the game total of 143.5 to be too high for the matchup. The game total has gone under in 19 of the 29 combined games these two teams have played, so look for this trend to continue.
But when push comes to shove, expect Villanova to have more diverse ways to score the basketball that Creighton cannot match. Duke Brennan will be a real factor on the interior in creating additional possessions. Count on him to be in line to dominate the boards and generate additional possessions. Bryce Lindsey has also played like one of the better players in the country of late and will carry this momentum into the matchup. Villanova is still looking to add some statement wins to the resume to cement its standing as a power program. Look for the Wildcats to take advantage of this Big East matchup and take a further step towards this by covering the 5.5-point spread in a low-scoring matchup tonight.
