An 82-game NBA season is a roller-coaster, but roller-coasters always tend to find equilibrium in the long run. That’s certainly been the case for the Chicago Bulls this season; they started off the season on a five-game winning streak, went on a disastrous losing stretch in which they looked like one of the worst teams in the league, rebounded with a few wins, and are now looking like one of the worst teams in basketball again. Fittingly for a team that has appeared in the SoFi Play-In Tournament in each of the past three seasons, the Bulls are 17-19, good for ninth in the Eastern Conference.
Chicago could get back within one game of .500 tonight, but it’ll be a tough road test against the East’s surprise leaders, the 27-9 Detroit Pistons. The game will tip off at 7 p.m.
The Pistons are somewhat healthier: while likely All-Star center Jalen Duren is out with an ankle injury and wing Tobias Harris with a hip injury, Cade Cunningham (wrist), Caris LeVert (knee), and Duncan Robinson (calf) are all probable. Meanwhile, the Bulls will be without their best player, Josh Giddey (hamstring), as well as reserve centers Zach Collins (toe) and Jalen Smith (concussion). Coby White (calf) and Matas Buzelis (illness) are questionable.
Detroit is an 11.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-485 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 231.5. Chicago is +370 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s divisional matchup and offer my prediction.
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons preview, prediction
Before Giddey’s injury, the Bulls’ offense operated through him, as he averaged 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. Those numbers have been surpassed only by Nikola Jokić this season, so the fact that he’ll be out for multiple weeks is a massive loss. With Giddey out, Chicago lacks reliable secondary playmaking: though Tre Jones is a serviceable backup point guard, he doesn’t have Giddey’s upside, and White is more of a score-first option. Nikola Vučević is still solid in the middle, averaging close to a double-double and making nearly 40% of his three-pointers, but that’s the problem: with him on the roster, the Bulls are unlikely to add another piece to their young core of Giddey and Buzelis.
As for the Pistons, they keep on chugging along, and a recent New York Knicks slump has allowed them to open up a 3.5-game lead atop the conference standings. Their most recent game, on Monday, was a statement victory, as they hosted New York and trounced them, 121-90. Cunningham, who finished seventh in MVP voting last season, has been basically the same player he was last season, averaging 26.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game on 47-34-84 shooting splits. While Duren’s injury is a tough blow, Detroit also has one of the league’s more reliable backup bigs in Isaiah Stewart, whose 8.6% block percentage ranks second in basketball.
Bulls at Pistons pick, best bet
It’s a good thing for the Pistons that they’re replacing Duren — who shoots 70.3% from the restricted area — with Stewart, who has made 72.0% of his tries from the same range this season, and while Stewart hasn’t been quite as efficient as Cunningham’s roll man as Duren has, he’s capable of using his length and athleticism to finish plays. Having an above-average backup center is especially critical in this matchup, since Chicago has let opponents live at the rim, attempting two more restricted-area tries per game than any other team. The Bulls have allowed a merely league-average conversion rate on such shots, so it’s not like they have zero rim protection, but as long as Detroit can continue putting pressure on the basket at a similar rate with Stewart as with Duren, it should have an edge.
Plus, while Chicago ranks second in the league in restricted-area tries on offense, that has dipped to merely eighth over the last four games with Giddey on the shelf. Despite opponents not respecting Giddey’s shot — on average, they’ve been 31.5 inches away when he launches, the 37th-furthest in the league — he’s able to be effective getting downhill, driving at the fifth-highest frequency. In turn, that’s helped to open up corner looks for Vučević. Jones doesn’t have nearly as much on-ball perimeter gravity, so the easy shots that Vučević and Buzelis are accustomed to might be harder to come by. The fact that the Pistons have allowed the fourth-fewest attempts and the third-lowest percentage in the restricted area only makes things more challenging for the Bulls.
Additionally, Detroit already has a major rebounding edge, ranking third league-wide in rebounding percentage while Chicago ranks 17th. That gap could be even more substantial tonight, as while the Pistons have been slightly worse at rebounding with Stewart in place of Duren, the Bulls’ rebounding percentage has dropped by 2.4 percentage points without Giddey, 3.6 percentage points without Smith, and 4.5 percentage points without Collins. If Buzelis doesn’t play, that number could get even worse. Detroit has turned the ball over more, thanks to Cunningham’s ball security issues, but it has been better at preventing points off of turnovers and fast break points regardless. Discipline is a neutral factor: while the Pistons foul a lot, the Bulls are bad at drawing contact and vice versa.
Shooting will be key, and even though Chicago has done a good job of limiting opponents’ wide-open threes, Detroit has been better, allowing the third-fewest, and that gap has widened over the last four games since Giddey went down. Offensively, the Bulls have been the league’s best team at generating wide-open threes, while the Pistons have been below-average, and Chicago has surprisingly managed to maintain its volume of uncontested looks without Giddey setting the table. That’s the one area in which the Bulls have a genuine edge: none of Detroit’s core players are very good shooters save for Duncan Robinson, and Vučević, Ayo Dosunmu, and Patrick Williams all have solid track records of above-average shooting. In fact, Dosunmu ranks 20th league-wide in three-point percentage minus expected three-point percentage, a measure of raw shooting talent in which no qualified Piston registers a positive value.
Chicago’s shooting edge aside, Detroit has a major advantage in every other category, and with its solid rim protection and ability to close out on opposing shooters, it is uniquely suited to mitigate the Bulls’ advantages. Chicago has scored 109 or fewer points in five of its last seven games, and now it faces the league’s second-best defense without its most talented playmaker.
