The Celtics are hosting the Nuggets on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 9.5 points and this game carries a total of 232.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Celtics vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
The Celtics’ impressive play continued this past Monday vs. the Bulls, with Boston defeating Chicago 115-101. This improved the Celtics to 23-12, and they passed the Knicks for the No.2 seed in the Eastern Conference with this win. Boston is 8-2 in its last 10, and the team leads the NBA in net rating by a solid gap during this stretch.
NBA fans have been stunned by Boston’s success with Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined, but it really should’t come as a major surprise, as Joe Mazzulla is one of the top coaches in the league and the Celtics have been successful with key players out throughout Mazzulla’s tenure, most notably with a 10-3 record with Tatum inactive last season.
Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are all playing the best basketball of their careers this season and role players like Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez have all had impressive stretches. Boston has a compelling and deep roster, and this group is playing with a ton of confidence right now.
As for the Nuggets, they are 24-12 and rank fifth in net rating this season, but Nikola Jokic remains out with a hyperextended knee. The three-time MVP has missed four games in a row and during this time, Denver is 2-2 with wins over the Raptors and 76ers. That win over Philadelphia came Monday night, which was the second leg of a back-to-back for the Nuggets and they sat Jamal Murray (ankle), Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Christian Braun (ankle) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (illness) for this contest.
Listed as probable, all of those key players will return tonight. Murray has been excellent with Jokic sidelined, most recently posting 27 points, 16 assists and six rebounds vs. the Nets on Sunday, but outside of Murray, Denver is fragile offensively with Jokic missing. Make no mistake, Murray is an awesome player, but he isn’t a superstar type talent that can win games single handily and the unfortunate truth is that without Jokic, the Nuggets are a below average team.
The center truly is the most valuable player in the NBA, and Denver’s splits without him this season are jaw dropping. The Nuggets have a 12.3 net rating with Jokic on the floor, but with him off, that number plummets to -5.3. For some perspective, the 11-22 Nets rank 25th in net rating this season at -4.4.
While Denver has managed two wins without Jokic over the last week, the team is just 8-11 with him inactive the last three seasons and the Nuggets are likely to struggle tonight, meeting a red hot Celtics team on their home floor.
Celtics vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
No team in the NBA is playing better than the Celtics right now and their success should continue with the Jokic-less Nuggets in town. Boston should be favored by more than 9.5 points and the team is a strong bet to cover this number.
The Celtics are 21-14-0 ATS this season, which is the second-best record in the league, and each of their last six wins has been by double digits.
