The No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3) and No. 7 Houston Cougars (13-1) are set to face off on Tuesday night, going head-to-head at the Fertitta Center. The Big 12 showdown will tip off at 9 p.m. EST on FS1.
The Cougars are 5.5-point favorites at home with -270 Moneyline odds and the total has been set at 142.5 points. Here is a preview of the in-state matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Tech at Houston Preview, Prediction
Texas Tech Preview
In between early blowout wins over Lindenwood, Sam Houston and Milwaukee, Texas Tech fell just short on the road against No. 14 Illinois. The Red Raiders eventually picked up some high-major wins against Wake Forest and LSU, but neutral-site losses to No. 1 Purdue and No. 17 Arkansas stymied their upward trajectory. Back on Dec. 20, though, Texas Tech beat No. 3 Duke 82-81, and it has since opened Big 12 play with a 22-point win over Oklahoma State.
Forward JT Toppin, an All-American last season, is averaging 21.2 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. While he is shooting 60.2% on two-pointers, Toppin is shooting 16.7% from three and 47.1% from the free-throw line. Sophomore guard Christian Anderson is putting up 20.5 points and 7.5 assists per game on .497/.435/.769 shooting splits. Washington State transfer LeJuan Watts has become a serious scoring threat in his own right since joining the starting lineup, averaging 14.1 points and 5.8 rebounds per game on .504/.387/.831 splits. UNC Greensboro transfer Donovan Atwell is putting up 11.3 points per game, hitting 42.9% of his 7.5 three-point attempts per game.
Beyond ranking top-25 in three-point percentage, the Red Raiders also rank No. 80 with 12.9 offensive rebounds per game and No. 35 with 10.1 turnovers per game. Those extra – and efficient – possessions have helped Texas Tech rank No. 57 with 85.1 points per game.
The Red Raiders rank No. 20 in adjusted net efficiency, according to the latest KenPom ratings. Their analytical profile leans offense over defense, as they rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive rating and No. 51 in adjusted defensive rating.
Houston Preview
The Cougars built their resume early by beating No. 22 Auburn in Birmingham on top of taking care of business against Lehigh, Towson, Oakland and Rider. After sneaking by Syracuse in overtime to open the Players Era Festival, Houston lost to No. 17 Tennessee the very next day. Then again, it rounded out the tournament by beating Notre Dame by 10. Houston hasn’t lost since its trip to Vegas, besting No. 14 Arkansas, Cincinnati, Florida State, Jackson State, New Orleans and Middle Tennessee to hang around in the top 10 of the AP Poll.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad is once again led by its guard play. Senior Emanuel Sharp is averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 39.4% on 7.1 three-point attempts a night. Kingston Flemings, a true freshman, is putting up 15.6 points, 5.0 assists and 2.3 steals per game. Former Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan is averaging 11.6 points and 4.4 assists per game midway through his second season with the Cougars. Freshman forward Chris Cenac Jr. and junior forward Joseph Tugler are leading the charge in the frontcourt, averaging 16.9 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 steals and 2.4 blocks per game between them.
Houston ranks No. 8 in terms of limiting turnovers and No. 28 when it comes to forcing them. It is also No. 33 in offensive rebounds per game, No. 43 in steals per game, No. 7 in assists against per game and No. 3 in points against per game.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, Houston ranks No. 11 in adjusted net efficiency. It ranks No. 21 in adjusted offense and No. 8 in adjusted defense.
Texas Tech at Houston Pick, Best Bet
Both Texas Tech and Houston have played seven games against high-major opponents so far this season. The Cougars are scoring 76.1 points and allowing 70.0 points per game from that sample, with five of the seven contests going over 143.5 total points. They are 6-1 in those games, winning by six-plus points in each of the last four.
As for the Red Raiders, they are 4-3 against high-major opponents, averaging 81.3 points for and 80.3 points against along the way. While they have covered a +5.5-point spread in five of those seven notable games, they have also lost by 30 to Purdue. Meanwhile, the over on 143.5 points has hit five out of seven times as well.
The argument for Texas Tech covering can be boiled down to its tight loss at Illinois, which is three spots above Houston in the KenPom. That was nearly two months ago, though, and it hasn’t played a true road game since. Houston went 9-1 at home in Big 12 play last season, winning by six or more points in all nine of those wins. The only loss came at the hands of Texas Tech in overtime, but the Red Raiders needed 40 points out of since-graduated guards Chance McMillian and Elijah Hawkins to pull that one out. Last year’s showdown in Houston also took place in February, when Texas Tech had far more road experience under its belt.
That being said, the over feels like the safer bet than Houston covering, even if the Cougars are such a defensive-oriented team. Toppin logged just four minutes the last time he played at Houston thanks to an early ejection, so maybe his presence can make up for McMillian and Hawkins’ lost production.
