A playoff rematch – under very different circumstances – is on tap tonight in Indianapolis. The Cavaliers, 20-17, are a far cry from last season’s 64-win juggernaut. Still, in the wide-open Eastern Conference, Cleveland believes it can reach the NBA Finals. Padding its record with wins against some of the association’s worst clubs might help. The Pacers, without Tyrese Haliburton, have delivered a disastrous 6-30 record.
Can Indiana, even in a rebuilding year, pull off an upset? Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Tuesday’s Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers matchup.
The Cavs are 5.5-point favorites (-105) over the Pacers on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cleveland is favored at -198 on the moneyline. The total for this matchup is set at 235.5 points.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers prediction, preview
The Cavaliers will be without face of the franchise Donovan Mitchell (rest) tonight. In addition, the statuses of Dean Wade (knee) and Jarrett Allen (illness) are questionable. Without the latter, Cleveland’s frontcourt will be extremely limited. That means more minutes could be in store for bench players such as De’Andre Hunter and Jaylon Tyson.
Even without Mitchell, the Cavs have an advantage over their opponents in terms of talent. With that being said, Cleveland has often underperformed this season. Evan Mobley should take on a larger role as a scorer tonight. Still, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year can be inconsistent on the other end of the floor. Through 31 games, the power forward is averaging 17.7 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. Fellow All-Star Darius Garland (17.0 PPG, 6.9 AST) should have complete control of the backcourt as well.
If nothing else, the Cavaliers remain one of the NBA’s more well-rounded squads. The team ranks tenth in offensive rating (117.0) and 13th in defensive rating (114.7). That’s despite extended absences for difference makers such as Garland and Mobley. Cleveland has looked better recently, winning three of its last four contests. The only loss during that time was a four-point nail-biter against the contending Pistons.
It’s been a much different story for the defending Eastern Conference champions. Indiana, without Haliburton and several other contributors, has looked like a shell of its former self. On the bright side, Pascal Siakam remains a force to be reckoned with. Over 35 games, the All-Star is putting up 23.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting 49% from the field. Youngsters Bennedict Mathurin (17.8 PPG) and Andrew Nembhard (17.4 PPG) have taken on larger roles as well. It’s worth mentioning that the former is out due to a thumb injury.
After that, there isn’t much worth praising for the Pacers. Former center Myles Turner left for Milwaukee, leaving a massive absence down low. Indiana is allowing an NBA-worst 57.5 rebounds per game to opponents this season. The team is also allowing the seventh-most points per game in basketball.
In spite of all their issues, the Pacers are a surprisingly good at defending the perimeter. Opposing teams are knocking down just 11.6 three-pointers per game vs. Indiana, fewest in the NBA. In comparison, Cleveland is attempting the third-most three-pointers per game (43.0) in basketball. That number might go down a bit with Mitchell out, but the Cavs should remain trigger-happy from long distance.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers pick, best bet
In each of the two meetings between these teams this season, Cleveland has won by at least 11 points. Granted, Mitchell was active on both occasions. On the road, without their best player, makes Tuesday’s game a more difficult proposition for the Cavaliers. Still, it’s almost impossible to have any faith in the Pacers. Indiana has dropped 12 straight games, looking uncompetitive most of the time. Even while short-handed, expect the visitors to cover tonight.
