Six teams have booked their tickets to the quarterfinals of the last major international tournament prior to the summer’s World Cup, and four teams have a chance at earning the final two slots this afternoon. The Africa Cup of Nations is usually among the most upset-laden of the continental competitions, but these knockout stages have been chalky so far, with three World Cup participants among the six confirmed quarterfinalists, and both of the games today feature a World Cup team.
One of those World Cup teams is also the defending AFCON champion, Ivory Coast, which eked its way through the knockout stages in 2023 as the host nation despite finishing as the weakest of the third-placed teams to advance. The Elephants have had a much more comfortable start to the tournament this time around, though they’ve drawn a fairly tough side for the Round of 16 in Burkina Faso. The match will begin at 2 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at Marrakesh Stadium.
Ivory Coast is a -115 favorite to win (-255 to advance) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Stallions are +390 (+195 to advance). There are +230 odds that the teams will require extra time.
Ivory Coast vs. Burkina Faso prediction, pick
The Elephants were faced with a challenging group featuring a continental giant in Cameroon, a Gabon side featuring one of the continent’s best strike partnerships, and a gritty Mozambique team that very nearly qualified for a continental playoff spot. They made light work of the group, though, coming back from 2-0 down to beat Gabon in a match that was far more dominant than the final score indicated. Burkina Faso also had a strong group stage: Ivory Coast’s northeasterly neighbor picked up comfortable wins over Equatorial Guinea and Sudan and arguably should’ve beaten World Cup-bound Algeria.
In Manchester United man Amad Diallo, who netted in the win over Mozambique and the draw to Cameroon before featuring only off the bench against Gabon, the Elephants have the strongest attacker on either team. The Ivory Coast is also capable of building out from the back, thanks to Başakşehir left back Christopher Operi, who assisted both of the second-half goals in the win over Gabon. Plus, while they’ve had relatively quiet tournaments so far, veterans Franck Kessié and Wilfried Zaha should never be slept on. Still, despite all of the attacking talent, the Elephants are arguably best defined by their rock-solid back line, which didn’t concede a goal in World Cup qualifying and which features three regular starters who play in top five leagues. They allowed the sixth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes in the group stage, and Yahia Fofana saved four of the five shots on target he faced.
The Ivory Coast’s back line won’t have it easy against a Stallions attack led by a pair of Premier League starters in Dango Ouattara (Brentford) and Bertrand Traoré (Sunderland). Like the Elephants, Burkina Faso has some of the most well-rounded players in Africa, as Ouattara and Traoré are both some of the most defensively sound attackers in the Premier League, and a pair of defenders (Lorient’s Arsène Kouassi and Leverkusen’s Edmond Tapsoba) have both found the back of the net in AFCON. The Stallions haven’t been remotely clinical in front of the net — their 25.0% on-target percentage is the third-lowest among the competition’s remaining teams, though ahead of the Ivory Coast — but they’ve allowed as few shots on target as Ivory Coast, have a superior goalie in Angers’ Hervé Koffi, and have won more tackles. If Ouattara can start being more accurate with his shots, Burkina Faso definitely has the defense to pull off an upset (or, at least, to push the Elephants to penalties).
With both teams boasting strong defenses and a possession-heavy style, as well as the fact that both teams have fairly well-rounded players, this game should be a low-scoring, tight-knit affair. So far this tournament, the Stallions have played slightly better on both sides of the ball, and while Ouattara and Amad have put their shots on target at a similarly low rate in the Premier League as they have to this point, Burkina Faso could also benefit from Traoré’s accuracy climbing back towards the 46.7% he’s posted in the Premier League this season. It’s worth betting on the Stallions to at least draw.
