The Denver Nuggets will travel to face the Philadelphia 76ers in tonight’s prime-time NBA matchup. This game has lost a bit of luster with injuries stacking up on Denver’s side and robbing us of the matchup between the pair of MVP centers.
Looking at the odds, the 76ers are 14.5-point favorites and hold -900 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets are +600 underdogs with the game total set at 227.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Nuggets vs. 76ers Preview
Injuries must be the headline of this matchup for the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic suffered a bone bruise and is set to be sidelined for at least the next three weeks. Denver brought in Jonas Valanciunas in the offseason, who has looked like the best backup of the three-time MVP’s career across the early stages of this season. But Valanciunas joined Jokic by picking up a calf strain, which will keep him out for roughly the same timeline. Tonight’s matchup will mark the second half of a back-to-back after the Nuggets fell short to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Denver has also ruled out Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. for tonight.
Looking in the wider scale of the season, the Nuggets hold a 23-12 record on the season. They have dropped four of their past five games and slipped to fourth place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 20-15 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone over in 23 of the 35 games this season.
When the team is at full strength, the metrics and results have been impressive for the Nuggets. They rank first in the league in scoring at 124.3 points per game, first in offensive rating, first in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, they rank 21st in opponents’ points allowed and 22nd in defensive rating. But the outlook will be much different given the injuries. Expect players like Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones, Jalen Pickett, Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther, and DaRon Holmes to see expanded opportunities.
It has been a turbulent past few seasons for the Sixers, but they are playing some of their best basketball in recent games. They hold a 19-14 record on the season and sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia has won three straight entering tonight, coming against the Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Knicks. Overall, the Sixers are 20-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 33 games.
As a team, the Sixers are averaging 117.0 points per game, which ranks 16th in the league. They rank 16th in offensive rating, 19th in pace, 27th in field goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage, and 25th in assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.1 points per game, which ranks 15th. Philadelphia ranks 14th in defensive rating, ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage. There have been some uneasy stretches, but the Sixers have played at an extremely encouraging level of late.
Tyrese Maxey is averaging 31.1 minutes, 7.1 assists, and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Third-overall pick V.J. Edgecombe has been the glue that holds this Sixers team together, making an impact in a variety of categories and balancing out the lineup. The Baylor product is averaging 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while helping set the tone defensively. Joel Embiid has started scaling up his minutes and will be playing his 17th game of the season tonight. The former MVP is averaging 22.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and has scored 22+ in seven consecutive games. Paul George has also started to find his role on the team, and Andre Drummond, Jared McCain, Quentin Grimes, and Dominick Barlow round out most of their notable rotation. Embiid is officially listed as probable, while Trendon Watford and Kelly Oubre Jr. remain sidelined with their injuries.
Nuggets vs. 76ers Prediction, Best Bet
There was some vocal frustration from the Nuggets after coming up short to the Nets last night. This became clearer when the injury report showed that tonight is a bit of a scheduled loss from Denver’s perspective. The players missing tonight for Denver are averaging a combined 118.3 points per game this season, and it is going to be difficult to overcome this level of missing production.
While a 14.5-point spread is notable, look for the Sixers to put this one away as soon as possible and create some old-school load management for their aging stars. The Sixers are playing their best basketball of the season, coming off an 11-point win over the Knicks and beating the Mavericks by 15 over their past two games. They also have four wins by 15+ points on the season.
Philadelphia is well aware that injuries have put them a bit behind the eight ball in terms of building chemistry. They failed to ever find their stride last year following the Paul George addition, and Edgecombe has added another layer to all of this. There is still a clear focus on getting everyone on the same page in the flow of the offense, and expect a clear effort for this to continue. Expect a focused effort for the Sixers to maximize each other. Philadelphia has found a real flow in the Maxey/Embiid two-man game, and the pieces around them make sense. During the recent win over the Grizzlies, it took until the third quarter before a made basket that neither Embiid nor Maxey scored or assisted on.
There is a massive talent gap in this game, and expect the Sixers to approach this with the intent of putting this away early. Count on Embiid getting plenty of touches early with there being no answer for him on this Denver roster, and for the later portions of this game to involve expanded time for the deep bench units. These teams are trending in opposite directions. Given the injuries to the Nuggets, this has a chance to be one of the more lopsided wins of the entire season.
