Eight games of NBA action are taking place across today’s Sunday slate. In a Western Conference battle, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder will face off with the Phoenix Suns, with tip-off scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
This marks the third matchup between these two teams. Oklahoma City picked up a narrow 123-119 win in the first matchup this year, and then steamrolled Phoenix for a 138-89 victory on December 10th. This marked their fewest points the Thunder have held an opponent to all season, and their largest margin of victory this year.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Thunder enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -425 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Suns hold +330 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 231.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Thunder vs. Suns prediction, preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder remain at the top of the Western Conference with an NBA-best 30-5 record on the season. While three losses to the San Antonio Spurs have slowed their potentially historic pace, they enter this matchup following four consecutive double-digit wins. The Thunder are 19-16 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 18 of their 35 games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has further added layers to his game following his MVP season last year. The 27-year-old is averaging 32.1 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.6 rebounds, while shooting a career-best 42.5% from beyond the three-point arc. Chet Holmgren is making his Defensive Player of the Year case, while adding 18.2 points and 8.2 rebounds. Jalen Williams is still settling in, but posting averages of 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists across his 16 games played. Depth is also a strength of this Thunder team, with players like Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins continuing to develop, and players like Alex Caruso and Lu Dort knowing their roles.
Injuries will be a bit of a factor for Oklahoma City. Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Nikola Topic, and Thomas Sorber will all be sidelined tonight. Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe are each questionable with knee soreness.
As a team, the Thunder rank second in the league in scoring at 122.4 points per game. They rank fifth in offensive rating, third in team field goal percentage, seventh in three-point percentage, and 15th in pace. Defensively, opponents are being held to the fewest points at just 107.1 per game against Oklahoma City. They lead the NBA in defensive rating, hold teams to the worst field goal percentage, and force the most turnovers in the league.
The Phoenix Suns are off to a 20-14 start to the season, which slots them at seventh place in the Western Conference. They have won five of their last six games and are coming off a 129-102 victory in the previous game. The Suns are an NBA-best 23-11 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 18 of their 34 matchups.
Devin Booker leads the team with 25.7 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game this year. Dillon Brooks has also played an important role in establishing the team’s culture, while averaging 21.4 points per game. Grayson Allen has provided a valuable 16.3 points and remains one of the better floor spacers in the league, but is questionable for tonight due to a knee issue. Jalen Green remains sidelined with his hamstring issue and has played just two games this season. Phoenix has also seen some solid production from players like Mark Williams and Royce O’Neale, with Collin Gillespie especially coming alive of late.
Phoenix ranks 20th in the league in scoring by generating 115.5 points per game. They are producing the 12th-best offensive rating, rank 18th in field goal percentage, 13th in three-point percentage, and generate the fifth-most offensive rebounds per game. Defensively, the Suns are holding opponents to 113.4 points per game, which is the sixth-best rate in the league. They rank 10th in defensive rating, 17th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 22nd in pace.
Thunder vs. Suns pick, best bet
The Phoenix Suns have overall exceeded expectations this season and have been in fine form of late. But the Oklahoma City Thunder are the gold standard of NBA basketball right now, and it is tough to talk yourself into them finding just about any basketball advantage in the Suns’ direction ahead of this game.
During the first matchup between these two teams, which resulted in a four-point Thunder win, Phoenix was able to out-rebound the defending champions 51-37 and produced 48 points in the paint. They also still trailed by double digits for most of the second half, despite a late push to make it competitive.
During the second matchup, the Thunder leaped out to a 15-point lead at the end of the first quarter and never looked back. It is worth noting that Devin Booker missed this game, but Oklahoma City dominated the game in every category and produced their largest margin of victory of the season. Dillon Brooks was the Suns’ leading scorer with 16 points.
Expect Oklahoma City’s defense to be the difference in the third matchup, and for Phoenix to be unable to have much success. The outlook started to blur a bit for the defending champions following the losses to the Spurs, but they are back to handling business on a nightly basis. Oklahoma City defeated the Warriors by 37 points on Friday, the Trail Blazers by 29 before this, the Hawks by 11, and the 76ers by 25 across their past four matchups. Oklahoma City is producing an NBA-best +15.3 average margin of victory on the season.
The Suns deserve credit for piecing together a respectable season, but this is a matchup in which they will be overmatched. It may have been the best thing for the Thunder to pick up the losses to the Spurs in the long run. They have looked rejuvenated, refocused, and dominant in the four games since and expect this to carry into tonight. Count on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to shine as the best player on the floor and for the depth of Oklahoma City to overwhelm them. Don’t be shocked if this game gets out of control early, and count on the defending champion to add another victory of 10+ points to their resume.
