Although the Saints and Falcons are both eliminated from the postseason, this game has major playoff implications. If the Saints win, the Buccaneers can clinch the division with a victory over the Panthers. If the Falcons win, the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes are done, regardless if they beat Carolina.
What may seem like a meaningless game between two eliminated squads is actually a high-stakes matchup for Tampa Bay.
Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite and -185 on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +154 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 44.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 18 NFL game between the Saints and Falcons.
Saints vs. Falcons Best Prop Bets
Tyler Shough over 228.5 passing yards (-112)
The Saints started the season with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, but they switched to Tyler Shough midway through the year. It wasn’t super pretty at first, but there’s a learning curve for all rookies. After he settled in, Shough looked confident under center.
Shough has thrown for 300+ yards in two straight games and over 270+ in three straight. Over the past three games, he’s recorded four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. Sure, this is against the Panthers, Jets and Titans, but it’s still an impressive run.
The Falcons are a much better defensive unit compared to the aforementioned three. Atlanta ranks 11th in passing yards allowed and sixth in interceptions. It’s a tough matchup for Shough, but he’s surpassed 228.5 passing yards in six of his eight starts.
This is a prove-it game for the rookie as he heads into his first offseason. If he exceeds expectations again, it’s possible he locks up the starting role for 2026.
Bijan Robinson over 82.5 rushing yards (-112)
The Falcons could find themselves in a three-way tie with the Buccaneers and Panthers after this weekend. That said, they lose the tiebreaker and are thus already eliminated from the playoffs.
Even with the playoffs out of sight, the Falcons will likely play at full speed. That means Bijan Robinson will get plenty of touches. He’s a dual threat on offense, so his yards can often be split between rushing and receiving. He’s up to 1,445 rushing yards and 810 receiving yards this season.
His rushing ability is, of course, the main skill. He’s topped 1,400 yards for the second consecutive season. Regardless if the Falcons are leading or trailing, he’s going to get a good amount of carries since he’s so effective. Robinson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, which is the highest of his career.
Robinson has hit over 82.5 rushing yards in four of the past five games. The one exception was a 76-yard performance against the Cardinals.
