AFC East rivals whose standings mirror their geography collide Sunday afternoon, as the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots (13–3, 1st AFC East) clinched the division title in Week 17 but are expected to play their starters with playoff seeding at stake. The Dolphins (7–9, 3rd AFC East) won’t reach the postseason, but they’ll look to play spoiler against their division rival.
The teams first met during Week 2 in Miami, where the Patriots seized a 33–27 victory.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. New England enters as a heavy 11.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Miami is listed as a +490 underdog. The game’s total is set at 45.5 points.
Here are the top player prop bets for Sunday’s Week 18 matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Best Prop Bets
Drake Maye 2+ Pass TDs (-189)
There’s a chance that New England takes it easy with MVP frontrunner Drake Maye ahead of the postseason — but he doesn’t need much time to stuff the stat sheet. Last week against the Jets, the sophomore signal-caller completed 19 of 21 passes (90.5%) for 256 yards and five touchdowns, all before the end of the third quarter.
With the AFC’s top seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage potentially on the line, the Patriots should lean on their passing attack early. And against a Dolphins secondary that has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season — including two to Maye in Week 2 — he has a favorable matchup to deliver.
Quinn Ewers 30+ Pass Attempts (+105)
The Dolphins looked toward the future in Week 16, benching quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers. The seventh-rounder out of Texas has delivered mixed results in his first two starts, completing 65.3% of his passes for 434 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
With Miami likely playing from behind against New England, Ewers should see plenty of chances to air it out. In his first start — a 45–21 blowout loss to the Bengals — the first-year field general threw 30 passes, and he seems poised to match that workload on Sunday.
Jaylen Wright Under 58.5 Rush Yards (-110)
With star running back De’Von Achane listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest, second-year RB Jaylen Wright is expected to carry the bulk of Miami’s workload. He broke out for 107 yards on 24 carries against the Jets in Week 14 after Achane went down, but facing New England’s defense will be a much tougher challenge.
The Patriots boast a formidable rush defense that has allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest opponent rushing yards this season — and held Achane to just 30 yards in Week 2. Coupled with a likely negative game script for the Dolphins, Wright seems unlikely to post much production on the ground.
