It doesn’t get better than this. Two rivals battling for the division crown with the winner advancing to the playoffs and the loser packing bags for vacation.
Pittsburgh is currently 9-7 while Baltimore is 8-8. The Steelers defeated the Ravens in Week 14 with a 27-22 final score, but Baltimore would get the tiebreaker due to the better division record.
In that Week 14 contest, Aaron Rodgers went 23-of-34 for 284 yards and a touchdown. The 284 yards were a season-high for Rodgers. DK Metcalf was the Steelers’ leading receiver, hauling in seven of 12 targets for 148 yards, but Metcalf is out for this game as he remains suspended.
Lamar Jackson went 19-of-35 for 219 yards, a touchdown and an interception while rushing seven times for 43 yards and a touchdown. Derrick Henry rushed 25 times for 94 yards while Zay Flowers was the Ravens’ leading receiver, catching eight of 11 targets for 124 yards.
Unsurprisingly, Baltimore has the highest EPA per carry on offense, averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 23 touchdowns. Pittsburgh is 11th with 4.3 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. Through the air, the teams are 25th (BAL) and 22nd (PIT) in EPA per dropback.
On defense, Baltimore has posted the sixth-lowest EPA per carry, allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 16 rushing touchdowns. Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-highest EPA per carry with 4.2 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns.
Defending the pass, Baltimore has the 15th-highest EPA per dropback, allowing a 63.7% completion percentage and 22 passing touchdowns. The unit has racked up 11 interceptions and only 28 sacks, tied for the third-fewest. The pressure rate is ninth-lowest.
Pittsburgh has the 18th-highest EPA per dropback while allowing a 64.7% completion percentage and 27 passing touchdowns. The unit has racked up 14 interceptions and 45 sacks, tied for the sixth-most. The pressure rate is only 20th, but the Steelers will receive a jolt for this one as T.J. Watt will be returning to the lineup.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (BAL @ PIT)
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
Hopkins has only been playing around 25% to 30% of the snaps recently. In addition, he’s received one target in three of the last four games. That said, he got a red-zone look last week and it’s for these games that Baltimore brought him to town.
TE Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,200)
It’s been a three-headed tight end monster for Pittsburgh this season, but it lost a head due to the Darnell Washington injury. Smith received five targets last week and has rushed five times over the last three games and scored a rushing touchdown. With Metcalf out, the passing game could flow through the tight ends.
TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens ($5,000)
Mark Andrews is ahead of Likely on the depth chart but is $2,000 more expensive. There have been plenty of games this season in which Andrews and Likely received the same number of targets. That said, there have also been games in which Likely hasn’t received a target at all. The risk/reward is enticing because Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most FPTS to tight ends on average this season.
