The final major international competition prior to this summer’s World Cup is down to the do-or-die phase, as Cameroon and South Africa are set to face off in the second day of Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 action.
The match is set to kick off at 2 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) in Rabat. The winner could have a tough matchup in the quarterfinals, as it’ll likely face Morocco, which is a heavy favorite in the day’s earlier match against winless Tanzania.
The Indomitable Lions are +145 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bafana Bafana is +240. The teams are +195 to draw in regular time.
Cameroon vs. South Africa prediction, pick
Both teams finished second in their respective groups, but each had a fairly impressive display, with Cameroon managing seven points and South Africa managing six. They both played well enough to win their respective groups, but the Indomitable Lions had to deal with a strong Ivory Coast side that just pipped them out on goals scored and Bafana Bafana were placed with Mohamed Salah’s Egypt. Either way, each should feel confident about its ability to defeat the other, and South Africa should feel prepared to make a run out of the group stage in this summer’s World Cup, where it will meet Mexico, South Korea, and one of Czechia, Ireland, Denmark, and North Macedonia.
After a pretty ugly win over Gabon and a nail-biting draw against Ivory Coast, Cameroon saved its best performance for last, notching a comeback win over Mozambique while out-shooting the Mambas 19 to 10 and generating eight corners to their two. In that match, it wasn’t the Indomitable Lions’ most high-profile star, Manchester United man Bryan Mbeumo, but Leverkusen youngster Christian Kofane, leading the charge. All in all, Kofane leads the team in shots (eight) and shots on target (four), and he and fellow youngster Karl Etta Eyong have scored one goal each, helping mask Mbeumo’s quiet start to the tournament. It’s Cameroon’s ability to build from the back that sets it apart: both left back Nouhou Tolo and center back Samuel Kotto are among the better distributional defenders in their respective leagues, and the Indomitable Lions have allowed fewer shots on target per 90 minutes than any team in the competition besides Morocco while winning the second-most tackles. With so many well-rounded players in front of him, it almost doesn’t matter that Devis Epassy has made only four saves from his six opportunities.
Bafana Bafana, meanwhile, plays possession football, dominating the ball in each of its three group stage matches. South Africa arguably should’ve beaten Egypt in its second group-stage match, getting off 18 shots to the Pharaohs’ six and only losing on a controversial hand ball that gifted Salah a spot kick. It also got off 16 shots in a 3-2 win over Zimbabwe, putting nine on target and ultimately winning on an Oswin Appollis penalty in the 82nd minute. Between Burnley’s Lyle Foster and Orlando Pirates’ Appollis, Bafana Bafana has one of the strongest attacks in the competition, as it finished fourth in shots on target during the group stage and it arguably got unlucky to face such in-form goalkeepers. South Africa’s defense isn’t quite as strong, though; it allowed four goals, twice as many as Cameroon, and it ranks third-to-last in tackles and second-to-last in interceptions. Ronwen Williams’ 70% save percentage is higher than Epassy’s 66.7%, but it only ranks 16th in the competition.
The Indomitable Lions should know not to take Bafana Bafana lightly after it drew twice with Nigeria (which, like Cameroon, was knocked out in the continental playoffs by DR Congo) in World Cup qualifying. But even with how dangerous and aggressive South Africa’s attack is, the Indomitable Lions are still the more complete team despite the absences of Vincent Aboubakar and André Onana. Bafana Bafana’s back line hasn’t had a great competition, and it is vulnerable to getting beaten on the counter-attack. I see Cameroon taking this one to advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since its third-place run in 2021.
