Yet another NFL Sunday is upon us, meaning it’s time for the latest edition of our weekly must-starts column. This time, it’s the final one of the regular season.
It’s Week 18, folks, and I am sad. The playoffs begin shortly but those mean plenty of teams get left behind and the season-long fantasy world slows to a halt (unless you’re a dynasty sicko like myself). However, we do have this one last week of the regular season to enjoy a full slate, and while this column leans toward the NFL DFS side of things, the same advice can apply to other formats as well — we just want to help you win your leagues. After crunching the numbers, we’ve got another three must-start players for your fantasy football contests. Whether a standout talent to build lineups around or an intriguing value with matchup and salary, these are guys who can smash and win the week. Let’s jump right in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
QB Caleb Williams, Bears vs. Lions ($5,900)
Week 18 brings some elevated risk with teams sitting starters or pulling them at half, but the Bears are still playing for the best postseason seed possible on Sunday against the Lions. Plus, it’s an NFC North rivalry game which players may want to get up for, so there’s less reason to worry about playing Caleb Williams at quarterback. Last year’s No. 1 pick has made some incredible throws over the last couple weeks even if his completion percentage doesn’t quite inspire a ton of confidence. He posted 21 DKFP in Week 16 before a 26-point game last week, throwing for eight touchdowns and just one interception over his last four games combined. Push that track record a little further back to Week 12 and you’re looking at 12 touchdowns to just two picks over his previous six outings.The fantasy floor is pretty stable for Williams and he’s shown a nice ceiling when really rocking, so a depleted Detroit defense places him in prime position for a big day. The Lions have allowed 23, 29, 41, 30, 31 and 27 points over their last six matchups; plus they rank 22nd in passing yards allowed with the fourth-most touchdowns conceded via the air (29).
RB Travis Etienne, Jaguars vs. Titans ($6,100)
Dating back to Week 9, few running backs have produced in fantasy football like Travis Etienne. The Jaguars’ lead runner has 15+ DKFP in six of his eight contests since his team’s bye week and has reached the end zone 10 times over that span. In his last four outings, Etienne tallied 11.2, 16.6, 31.5 and 21.2 DKFP and he averages a nice 15.9 FPPG on the campaign as a whole, so you’re getting some dependable production here. A matchup with the Titans looks rather nice since Tennessee sits 17th in defensive EPA/rush and rushing yards allowed, also allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (20). With Jacksonville still playing for the AFC South title against a weak opponent, Etienne should see plenty of work as usual with a floor of 12 touches and a handful of targets in the receiving game as well. With his big-play threat and projected workload, he’s a very safe selection at halfback with an eye-popping ceiling given a touchdown or two.
WR Luther Burden III, Bears vs. Lions ($5,300)
Take your pick of top wideouts in this game but make sure to pick up Luther Burden III if you have the salary for him. The Bears’ rookie wideout could prove very useful in a stack with his quarterback and comes off a career-best performance of eight receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He’s truly come online over the last few weeks with at least four catches and six targets in four consecutive contests, also going for 14.4 DKFP in Week 15 with six grabs for 84 yards on seven opportunities in that game. Does he have the star pedigree of other players in the pool? No, but you can see the vision here for sure thanks to his speed and after-catch ability (third among wideouts at 7.1 YAC per reception) in an offense called by head coach Ben Johnson. Chicago liked this kid for a reason! He gets the Lions’ secondary which was mentioned in the above blurb about Williams, but to make matters better, PFF projects Burden’s primary matchup as Amik Robertson — who sits 104th out of 112 qualifying players in coverage grade.
