With the NFL playoff picture largely set as we enter the final week of the regular season, one might believe there’s little to play for beyond the last handful of teams looking to punch postseason tickets. Week 18 typically leads to a little bit of weirdness around the league, but there’s plenty at stake under the surface — specifically, the chase for contract incentives may shape how this slate plays out.
Remember the thrill of watching the Buccaneers feed Mike Evans the football so he could reach the 1,000-yard mark in the final game last year? A similar concept applies here as players around the NFL chase some hefty paydays in the range of six-to-seven figures, but the potential payouts don’t stop there. Sharp bettors can leverage the knowledge of such incentives as an extra edge in player prop markets as well.
Here are some of the key NFL player contract incentives to keep an eye on in Week 18 which you can use to fill out your prop bet betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL player incentives to watch in Week 18
Panthers RB Rico Dowdle
Week 18 kicks off with a duel for the NFC South on Saturday afternoon as the Panthers face the Buccaneers. One of the surprise stars of the campaign, Rico Dowdle broke out with one of the most impressive stretches of play for a running back in recent memory around the midseason mark. While he’s cooled off some amidst a tough schedule to end the year, he sees the opportunity to earn a $1 million incentive for reaching 1,350 scrimmage yards. He needs just seven more yards to hit that mark. While you can’t find a line that low on DraftKings Sportsbook, bettors can find his combined rushing + receiving yards line set at O/U 75.5 yards and Dowdle will likely be fed the ball in a must-win game.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold
There are a handful of incentives in the late game on Saturday as the Seahawks battle the 49ers for the NFC West, but you can’t exactly bet on snap counts for Jauan Jennings. However, Sam Darnold sees the chance to cash four separate bonuses of $500K which are tied to a handful of different statistics. If he throws for at least 150 yards, he reaches an incentive for 4,000 yards on the season. With three touchdown passes, he hits another one for hitting 28 TDs via the air. Against a pretty soft San Francisco secondary, Darnold’s passing yards O/U sits at 244.5 with +274 odds of throwing three or more touchdowns.
Titans RB Tony Pollard
The Titans are not a good football team at the moment and the front office is likely hoping to land a better draft pick with a loss to the Jaguars on Sunday (and Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South with a win). However, the stakes are high for Tony Pollard, who can secure a $250K bonus with 66 additional rushing yards to reach 1,100 this season. This may be a close one with his rushing yards O/U set at 68.5 against a Jags defense which ranks among the NFL’s best against the run, but Pollard has 18+ carries in three of his last four games with 85+ yards on the ground in all four straight.
Patriots WR Stefon Diggs; TE Hunter Henry
New England can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win over the Dolphins, so the starters should see action in the first half at the very least. A pair of players can see some significant cash with some numbers through the air. Stefon Diggs can make $500K with 30 receiving yards (O/U 54.5) and can likely hit that mark with ease on just one or two catches. Meanwhile, Hunter Henry can also see a $250K incentive with five receptions (O/U 4.5). The over sits at +104 and could provide an intriguing pick since the tight end seems to have excellent chemistry with Drake Maye.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
The NFC East title was claimed by the Eagles several weeks ago in a weak division, but Saquon Barkley can earn a big check with a big game. He needs 87 yards from scrimmage to hit 1,500 on the campaign for a $250K incentive. He’s hit that yardage mark in exactly half of his contests, including three of his last four. The Commanders allow the third-most rushing yards to running backs, so Barkley may not even need much via the receiving game to make Sunday payday.
Commanders WR Deebo Samuel
It’s been a tough season for the Commanders and their fanbase, cratering after an exciting playoff run just last year. Deebo Samuel can numb some of the sting as he finishes the regular season, but he’ll need a huge outing to cash out his incentives. With 93 receiving yards, he can make an additional $200K while two touchdowns net him another $250K. That might be difficult with Josh Johnson at quarterback against the Eagles’ secondary, but perhaps Philadelphia rests some starters.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen
Out in an intriguing AFC West matchup between the Chargers and Broncos, Keenan Allen has already vested $2.25 million in incentives and sits within striking distance of another milly. The veteran needs six catches for a $750K incentive along with just nine receiving yards for an additional $250K. The former may not happen since he plays a somewhat limited share of snaps and the team may want to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs. However, even one grab could be enough to hit the latter incentive.
Bills WR Khalil Shakir; TE Dawson Knox
A couple of guys can secure incentives out in Buffalo in Week 18. Khalil Shakir probably won’t hit the eight catches he needs for $150K, but he makes that same amount if he hauls in one receiving touchdown to bring his tally to five on the season. His teammate Dawson Knox can make some money in three different ways — seven receiving yards, one touchdown, and six catches can each net him $100K apiece.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt
The Chiefs’ hunt for the playoffs crashed and burned with Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending injury a few weeks ago, but one of their running backs is likely still quite keen on playing well this weekend. Kareem Hunt is just 31 scrimmage yards away from a $125K bonus. He’s hit that mark in 11 of his 16 appearances this season and gets a date with the Raiders on Sunday.
